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Author Topic: Are we in for the next round of financial volatility?  (Read 63736 times)

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OzHippy

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Are we in for the next round of financial volatility?
« on: November 27, 2015, 08:18:19 pm »

Where to start:
  • Chinese shared dropped 5.48% today due to a number of major stock brokers been investigated for corruption and shady deals.
  • "Barclays fined $109 million for trying to hide 'the deal of the century'": You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
  • Brazil bank’s shares tumble after arrest of billionaire leader in corruption case  You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
  • Japan has been implementing massive artificial stimulus to get inflation going, but "In Japan, the benchmark Nikkei 225 index closed down 0.3% at 19,883.94. Data released on Friday showed the country's core consumer prices index (CPI) recorded its third straight month of falls - down 0.1% in October from a year earlier. Household spending in the country fell 2.4% during the period.
  • Gold price being hammered due to expected US interest rate hikes, which is likely to crash most developing counties
  • Oil price and commodities (copper, iron ore, zinc, lead) falling like a stone. :Ore with 62 per cent content delivered to Qingdao fell to $US43.89 a dry ton on Tuesday, the lowest level in daily data dating back to May 2009, according to Metal Bulletin Ltd. The commodity, which is headed for a third annual drop, was at $US43.98 on Thursday, down from $US44.07 on Wednesday."You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
  • Russia putting sanctions on Turkey due to downing of jet.  Turkey economy is already in trouble.
There are more things going on but will stop the list there.  A swath of bank corruption scandals in the last two days - might indicate imminent crash as all the rotten 'eggs' bad loans and shady deals fall out.  The 15-16th December the US Fed make a decision on interest rates - no matter what decision they make it will end up bad news we are entering the twilight zone.
« Last Edit: November 27, 2015, 08:21:13 pm by OzHippy »
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Azzaaa

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Re: Are we in for the next round of financial volatility?
« Reply #1 on: November 28, 2015, 09:44:26 pm »

There is always bad news and always some market falling. I noticed that you did not mention the consistent RISE of the US dollar. Or you omitted the fact that many Australian gold stocks have risen significantly over the last 6 months. In order for something to rise something else must fall. Everything is connected.
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OzHippy

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Re: Are we in for the next round of financial volatility?
« Reply #2 on: November 28, 2015, 11:59:02 pm »

This is not waxing and waning of markets, it is full blown collapse in progress and given the debt levels and quantitative easing and artificial stimulus by governments and world organisations like the IMF and ECB, and the interconnections of world business and financial institutions  - it is the worst collapse the world has ever seen with consequences well beyond anything the world has ever experienced.


As to local gold producers - the gold price dropped by USD $15 an ounce Friday night and the AUD strengthened all local gold producers are getting hammered.   

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crazycatlady

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Re: Are we in for the next round of financial volatility?
« Reply #3 on: November 29, 2015, 06:54:41 am »

I wish something would happen definitively one way or another because limping along means half a generation of kids who don't realize that their present economy is not the norm, its just a stop on the way to somewhere.
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OzHippy

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Re: Are we in for the next round of financial volatility?
« Reply #4 on: November 29, 2015, 08:18:27 am »

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I wish something would happen definitively one way or another because limping along means half a generation of kids who don't realize that their present economy is not the norm, its just a stop on the way to somewhere.
Agree to me keeping employment till things completely fail is the big challenge.  Every month I add to my preps, so the longer it takes perhaps the better :-\ .  There is big problem with youth unemployment that is creating all kinds of social ills.
I am constantly at loggerheads with Azzaaa it is not just some bad market news - I see thing progressively getting worse, on a monthly bases another country goes into failure or recession, and one does not see improvement anywhere, the dominoes are falling. 

I am expecting an overnight failure, where you wake up one morning and all bank accounts are frozen and pandemonium beaks out.  How long they can keep things artificially going is a mystery to me.  Every country lives on debt when there is no more money to be borrowed it all goes up in smoke. 
Yes economies are limping along but the wound causing the limp has gone gangrenous and there is no longer a cure with a guaranteed outcome.  When is the trillion dollar question, the sooner the reset the better, the longer it takes the worse it gets.
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Gympiegoat

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Re: Are we in for the next round of financial volatility?
« Reply #5 on: November 29, 2015, 09:52:02 am »

It will take 2 to 3 days to work through the system. If banks fail Fri or Mon for instance & banks do not have the staff to go around to all the ATMs to empty the funds out so some people will deny the rumours by saying they just got money out recently. Many sheeple including shopkeepers will just wait living on hopium & expecting Gov., IMF & central banks to step in & save the banks. Letters of credit will survive a few days as businesses will expect insurance to cover their payments so they can keep trading.  So many will just be in denial that inertia will keep things going for a few days as many will have taken their weekly pension out of the bank to live on for a few days so money will still be flowing but it's velocity will collapse fast as so many now live on plastic & not cash like sensible people should.
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OzHippy

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Re: Are we in for the next round of financial volatility?
« Reply #6 on: November 29, 2015, 10:26:56 am »

Mostly agree, look at Greek example, had a meeting that lasted till midnight Saturday then said they would halt trading and banks would be closed.  By 9am Sunday morning ATN were cleaned out - shops still kept going but horded any money they got to pay staff.  Online banking still happened.  That was one country going down and they work on Euro which was still strong.

In 2007/8 bank ques in the UK nearly shut down the system they were 2h from closing all banks and running out of cash.  Were saved by Gov.  When the current system fails gov won't be in a position to help out - they are broke and borrow and print money to keep going, the fake system falls over.

UK 2007.
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Arkane

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Re: Are we in for the next round of financial volatility?
« Reply #7 on: November 29, 2015, 10:31:14 am »

I see cash in hand as nearly as useless as a plastic card!

How many shops other than a few mom and pop/Asian shops DO NOT USE COMPUTERised tills!

Most stores will if the banks shut just shut up shop themselves due to the lack of any backup systems!

I know a few shop owners and if the net or banking services are not available they just shut shop for the duration!

Very few employees are capable of manual transactions these days!

Just have a look when you are served most anywhere these days most need a calculator as a minimum to give change from $10 !

Easier for most stores to just shut for the duration!
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OzHippy

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Re: Are we in for the next round of financial volatility?
« Reply #8 on: November 29, 2015, 10:46:08 am »

Yip it goes down quickly.

Annual Black Friday tussle for goods videos in the US - and that is for goods that aren't very cheap - imagine when things are more life/death situation or panic mode sets in.

Check these short vids.
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Gympiegoat

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Re: Are we in for the next round of financial volatility?
« Reply #9 on: November 29, 2015, 01:21:44 pm »

Yes it will go down quickly, 2-3 days like I said. I do not have plastic, I keep a few grand on hand always & have no trouble using cash in Gympie. I think rural feed barn near me will still take cash for a few days before they wake up. Not much else I need. Would top up a few things like soap, toothpaste & coffee & a few legs of ham & cans of cooking oil if I could & maybe buy a few extra gas bottles. Better than chopping firewood at my age.
If things do get very bad people will start dying fast as community help services cease. The 90+ year old couple over the road would not need their 2 x 45 kg gas bottles. Two of them would see the wife & I out at our age as we only use 2 x 9kg bottles a year & I have 6 of them.
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graynomad

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Re: Are we in for the next round of financial volatility?
« Reply #10 on: November 29, 2015, 10:26:23 pm »

One advantage to getting on in years eh GG, you don't need to prep for as long :)
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OzHippy

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Re: Are we in for the next round of financial volatility?
« Reply #11 on: December 08, 2015, 10:00:51 pm »

Stocks are getting a bit of shaking again.  Across all markets (Asia, Europe, Americas) stocks are down, China more bad data another 3.7% drop in imports and exports, 13 months in a row of continuous decline and this in height of 'western' world  holiday season.  US stocks in neg territory for the year again.  Oil well below $40 fundamental support level (<$38). Very high bankruptcy rate i.e number of large global companies being liquidated - as with oil liquidation rates are close to 2008 crash levels. Mining companies down 5%, US gun sales as predicted have skyrocketed as has share in gun manufactures after US terror incident this week.

Next week expected US interest rate hike will be interesting.  Markets have turned from investment based to short term traders - so any little shock in the wrong direction causes panic across the globe.
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crazycatlady

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Re: Are we in for the next round of financial volatility?
« Reply #12 on: December 09, 2015, 08:36:14 am »

Still following my chosen financial guru.  He is predicting a down turn, followed by a meteoric rise before the US election followed by the mother of all plunges.

Following his lead, I'm planning to consider liquidating about next April.  The clue for this will be if the Fed raise rates in Jan, be out by April

Now, I don't understand this but it all seems to make sense when he explains it.  But because he posts every day, its a tremendous amount of info to try and take in the all I can do is make notes of the bits I want to remember. 

On the good side, that just gives you another five months to stock up or to get a plan.  Wish I had a plan.....
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Arkane

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Re: Are we in for the next round of financial volatility?
« Reply #13 on: December 09, 2015, 08:49:45 am »

The only people who know exactly when the crash is to happen are those who make it crash
And they won't be saying at all!

One should already be cashed up and clear of any financial stuff!
better to be a year or two early than even one day late!

If no one will buy your shares you will ride them to hell! ;D
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Azzaaa

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Re: Are we in for the next round of financial volatility?
« Reply #14 on: December 09, 2015, 11:56:48 am »

I know I've said this before but you are looking in the wrong place in order to see where the next crisis is coming from. The market that is at extremes is the bond market. That is where the greatest risk is. The bond market is all debt that is owed by governments that are dead broke and further more those bonds are held by the banks as cash reserves. That's why  interest rates rising are going to be the catalyst for the collapse. Government will have to spend more on interest and because they have to borrow every year just to function they will have to borrow even more and thereby creating the downward spiral that ends in default and a banking crisis. So looking at the stockmarket and thinking that will signal the collapse is way off base. Basically you are looking to the left while the financial hurricane is coming at you from the right.
            Do yourself a favor and conduct a study of the great depression. You will find that the crisis did not occur until the bond market collapsed in the second half of 1931. You can even see the significant difference in the newspapers from June onwards. Thats when the banking crisis started. So anyone thinking that the depression was caused by the stockmarket crash is dead wrong.
           The main reason I am pointing this out is because I see a panic like reaction to bad economic data. The worlds economy as a whole has been contacting since 2007. The bulk of growth since 2007 has come from the USA, but now the US has turned down so the economic data will only get worse from now on. The key here is that the dominoes have not yet fallen, they are still lining up. The first domino is a European government default not the stockmarket crashing.
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