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Author Topic: Are we in for the next round of financial volatility?  (Read 63735 times)

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doomsdayprepper4570

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Re: Are we in for the next round of financial volatility?
« Reply #30 on: December 13, 2015, 06:59:18 am »

Too much greed and too much want want what I can not afford.
All financial markets are a means for the rich to take cash from the poor.
That's the way it has been and the way the money gods want it to stay.
Except that now many people can read and write and have some level of education.
I often wonder if we would be better off with a one world currency and a fixed value on that currency.
But that would most likely make things worse for the poor.
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doomsdayprepper4570

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Re: Are we in for the next round of financial volatility?
« Reply #31 on: December 13, 2015, 07:12:58 am »

We are in a state of hyperinflation it is just people are too dumb to see it.
Bread $5 plus a loaf most of the times, rego has gone up 4 fold, cars have doubled in price the last 15 years, house prices and house block prices are insane, feed molasses has gone up from $5 a 44 gallon to $160 a drum in
40 years.
And until recently the price of cattle for the producers returns was the same as the early 1970's.
I have never owned a toyota landcruiser, but a diesel ute was $6,000 and now it costs $80,000 new.
I mean really! We purchased 2,500 acres of land for that amount of money! How can a piece of metal and a bit of plastic have that value?
I will tell you why!
G R E E D
It feeds along the supply line and tailend charlie is suppose to pay for the end product to support the lifestyle of the rich!
It is grinding to a halt.
The number of new house applications in cairns went from approx 250 a year to 25 the last report I saw.
Guess what? They can not understand why!
PEOPLE HAVE HAD ENOUGH OF BLEEDING CASH!
Too much money, too much repayments, too much gov/council regs, too much trouble.
This country is being strangled to death by farking redtape!
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OzHippy

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Re: Are we in for the next round of financial volatility?
« Reply #32 on: December 13, 2015, 08:09:21 am »

I understand precisely what you are saying about inflation, hyperinflation is a different thing.  The world is currently fighting low to negative inflation esp in Europe (ECB put interest rates further into the neg last week, and are printing 60bn euros a month out of thin air) Japan now the 3 largest economy house prices are below 1990" levels, have printed debt up to 300x their GDP, US has very low inflation and is worrying the US financial institutions, US fed blame its on low oil price saying it will self correct.

Price  gouging what we have in Australia is differ also Australian gov is going broke and having to borrow billion to keep thing going so trying to steal money at every corner.

What I am talking about when the gov economy fail they open the printing presses big time. In a matter of months a $10 bill equals a $10,000,000,000 bill see the 50bn 1923 Weimar Republic note below and Zimbabwe 100bn note.
The story goes in the old Weimar Republic a man goes into a baker shop with a wheelbarrow full of money and come out with a loaf of bread and all his money but no wheel barrow. 


 
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OzHippy

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Re: Are we in for the next round of financial volatility?
« Reply #33 on: December 13, 2015, 08:23:11 am »

Back in the 1980" I worked with a guy from Argentina, the price of bread went up 3x a day they used to go lunch time to the bank withdraw all their money and redeposit it at higher interest rate. With the US dollar as the reserve currency when the economy fails and they ramp up the printing presses I don't think it can last even a few days the banks will just shut.


top 1% of the rich now have more wealth than the other 99%, world food reserves are the worst they have ever been since recorder history - few living on the land, no one has veg gardens and chickens in back yard, most farmers are specialized.  e.g. things like apples are stored for a year before hitting the markets if our transport systems fail it all goes poof.   


I prep for economic melt down, the most common reason for US preppers is economic collapse.  I know I don't post a rosy picture but all the same mistakes that were made since the roman times when nations have failed are being repeated.  To me and very many bloggers even mainstream media are starting to report on it indicate collapse is at hand.
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gregprep

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Re: Are we in for the next round of financial volatility?
« Reply #34 on: December 13, 2015, 01:43:40 pm »

Thanks Azzaaa. That is very helpful - the investing.com link in particular contains some great information.
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OzHippy

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Re: Are we in for the next round of financial volatility?
« Reply #35 on: December 13, 2015, 04:21:49 pm »

As posted previously I watch the chain reaction starting with commodity prices crashing - leading to 'junk bonds' then stocks and bonds.
Commodity prices have already crashed, Thursday/Friday this last week junk bonds that have been steadily falling took a big plunge, with a number of investment companies defaulting on interest  payouts to investors.  The economic wheels have been wobbling for a long time but now are starting to fall off.
 
"High-yielding US bonds started a major rout late this week, stripping many energy and mining companies of their financial resources and stirring concerns about a ‘domino effect' financial meltdown similar to the 2008 crisis."
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"An unprecedented rout in the post-crisis US bond market might only be a beginning of a greater bonds meltdown. Billionaire investor Carl Icahn said the deeper decline is in line for the US bonds market.
"The meltdown in High Yield is just beginning," Icahn twitted on Friday.
The main reason the junk bond dynamics are so important is that a similar picture preceded shortly before the US financial markets collapse in 2008. After a years-long rally, junk bonds plummeted first, triggering a chain of crashes in both stocks and bonds, invoking grave consequences for the US economy"

Wall Street Journal
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"The Stock Market Is Missing the Warning From Junk
Declines in high-yield bonds are worrying Wall Street, as such moves can presage economic downturns"

Another thing to watch is defaults that I mentioned earlier. “In most high-default periods we’ve seen in the past, the rise in default rates precedes a recession,” said Mr. Altman, who has been studying the subject for more than 50 years.
« Last Edit: December 13, 2015, 04:53:07 pm by OzHippy »
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Azzaaa

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Re: Are we in for the next round of financial volatility?
« Reply #36 on: December 13, 2015, 08:42:36 pm »

Something that is misunderstood about hyperinflation is that it only occurs to a nation that is isolated from the rest of the world. This happened to Zimbabwe where nobody in their right mind would lend money to or invest in an economy controlled by Robert Macabe. Hyperinflation is an effect of the collapse in confidence of the government. The same event occurred with the German government in the 1920s. After the first WW a revolutionary government took power that nobody trusted, so confidence collapsed in both the government and the currency. Because nobody trusts the government they can't borrow so in order to maintain power they turn to the printing press. Hyperinflation is not what you think.
          This is where the future of the USA and the US dollar has been the victim of mass propaganda. Every dollar that the federal Reserve has electronically created is still sitting on it's balance sheet. All they did was swap the dollars for bonds. The money never left the Fed as bonds are cash that pays interest. That's why the Fed has electronically created 3.5 trillion US dollars and the value of the US dollar has risen so much. The money never left the Fed. This is why I have been saying they are not printing money they are printing bonds! It's the bond that is printed out of thin air!
           
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doomsdayprepper4570

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Re: Are we in for the next round of financial volatility?
« Reply #37 on: December 13, 2015, 09:26:32 pm »

I have no bonds, no shares, no money and no debts.
What's that mean for me?
I have the means to feed myself and 500 others.
I pay no power bills, no much for fuel, grow most of my won food and no bank repayments or HP.
Pay no PAYE tax and little gst.
What is my future?????? :o
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OzHippy

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Re: Are we in for the next round of financial volatility?
« Reply #38 on: December 13, 2015, 09:45:08 pm »

The Real Bubble isn’t in Stocks: You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
These guys explain it well say the real bubble is on stocks and it pops when inflation goes up and stocks crash.  Yes they were isolated currencies that's why I  irrespective if cash or bonds will still lead to hyperinflation.

I’m not sure where the tipping point is for the global bond bubble. It depends on what happens with inflation. If the rest of the world goes the way of Japan and enters a long, slow, deflationary phase, then bond prices will stay elevated for many years....

But if inflation heats up and then gets away from central bankers, trillions of dollars will go up in smoke as capital escapes the bubble bust.
But if inflation gets out of control, I wouldn’t want to bet on stock markets doing too well either. Why?

Think of the world’s balance sheet. There’s a lot more debt than equity, meaning the global economy is highly geared. This boosts growth and return on equity when times are good.

But if inflation picks up strongly it will erase real economic growth. A lack of real growth means lower returns on equity. In such an environment, global bond AND stocks markets will get smashed.

I’m not sure how far away a pick-up in inflation is. Bond markets certainly don’t seem too concerned about it right now. The good news is, if you know where to look, you’ll see it coming.
« Last Edit: December 13, 2015, 10:04:11 pm by OzHippy »
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OzHippy

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Re: Are we in for the next round of financial volatility?
« Reply #39 on: December 13, 2015, 09:52:10 pm »

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What is my future? ??? ?? :o
You will be one of the few sitting on the sofa and laughing at us poor idiots who still have super etc...
If employed one pays around 60-70% tax (you still pay 10% sales tax) will be great to keep all ones efforts for oneself once the banks implode and gov disappear. 
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doomsdayprepper4570

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Re: Are we in for the next round of financial volatility?
« Reply #40 on: December 13, 2015, 09:56:07 pm »

I get a refund through a mate on my gst purchases as well! ;) ;)
Bugger em all to hell I reckon! 8) 8) 8)
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graynomad

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Re: Are we in for the next round of financial volatility?
« Reply #41 on: December 14, 2015, 09:08:19 am »

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I have no bonds, no shares, no money and no debts.
What's that mean for me?
I have the means to feed myself and 500 others.
I pay no power bills, no much for fuel, grow most of my won food and no bank repayments or HP.
Pay no PAYE tax and little gst.
What is my future?????? :o

I'd say it's pretty bright mate. :)

The primary effects of whatever happens in the world of finance have 0% affect on me. Secondary effects (recession/depression etc) will also have 0% effect on me. Tertiary effects (social chaos/breakdown) will do but hopefully not as much as most.
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graynomad

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Re: Are we in for the next round of financial volatility?
« Reply #42 on: December 14, 2015, 09:19:36 am »

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...The good news is, if you know where to look, you’ll see it coming.


Honestly when I look into this stuff it makes my brain hurt. I work mostly with physical things and all the second guessing about if this happens then that will happen and that will cause this to go up and something else to go down if Fred Nerk even talks about raising something else....ahhhhh, it's like this


(If bar Y moves left a constant speed. How does bar X move?)

But with intangible "stuff" and replacing two of the cogs with rubber bands and a third with feelings and opinions.

Anyway, the good news is that I don't have to understand global finance as I have OzHippy, Azzaaa, et al to do that and tell me (us) when things are about to go tits up. At that point I'll just lock the gate and unlock the gun safe :)
« Last Edit: December 14, 2015, 09:34:26 am by graynomad »
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doomsdayprepper4570

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Re: Are we in for the next round of financial volatility?
« Reply #43 on: December 14, 2015, 07:15:02 pm »

I concur, and we got 2 lots of 27 points of rain FYI (13mm in the new money) :P
Gota do a bit of x-mas shopping. Bit of seafood and stockup on chicken.
I need a couple of 60 liter poly screw top drums, 1 for coarse salt and the other for cooking salt.
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Loose ends make my arse itch and I have just clipped my finger nails. So the itch flows to my trigger finger.

OzHippy

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Re: Are we in for the next round of financial volatility?
« Reply #44 on: December 14, 2015, 08:33:22 pm »

The professional annalists who manage billion dollar funds don't know either -  the mostly get it wrong.
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