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Author Topic: Imminent financial collapse  (Read 8736 times)

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OzHippy

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Imminent financial collapse
« on: May 14, 2017, 11:48:50 am »

I know I have been talking about this a long time, but for the first time I am actually getting worried that I might be right. 
There are so many thing happening and spot fires breaking our all over not to mention N.Korea doing more missile tests and another Ebola outbreak in Africa.

China debt bubble the biggest and most rapid bubble ever to form in global history bursting with banking contraction.  A major Canadian lender to the housing market is now facing liquidation or gov bailout,  US auto loans that I have been posting about is now bubbling over.   
US retail loosing over 3,000 big stores this year and still more to come, restaurants loosing customers. A few articles that came out today - the same every day many articles about underlying problems. 

These major retailers are closing more than 3,000 stores this year
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"Canada Hasn't Seen A Bank Run Such As This In Decades" - Finance Minister Says Home Capital Bailout Is Possible
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Worst Restaurant Tailspin Since 2009/2010 Crushes Lower End
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Why US Investors, And Especially VIX Sellers, Should Care About China In 1 Simple Chart
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24 Hours Later: "Unprecedented" Fallout From "Biggest Ransomware Attack In History"
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Bank of China ATMs Go Dark As Ransomware Attack Cripples China
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A California Business Banker Speaks Out: "It's A Classic Late-Cycle Red Flag"
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From an banker perspective things are going nuts......
Quote
Hey Mish
 
It’s been a while since my last email. Here are some views from this business banker’s chair.
 
I had lunch with a financial planner today, and he said the new tax plan coming from DC would eliminate tax-deductibility of state taxes. While Federal tax rates might go down a little, the net impact would be higher total taxes via higher total federal taxes due to the loss of writing off state taxes. At least, that is the view for those of us in high state income tax states like CA. He already had clients exiting the state.
 
The gentleman I had lunch with today is a lifelong financial planner, mostly on the insurance side. He stated that the insurance industry today is in worse shape than that of the banking industry during the prior recession, and yet we hear very little about it. If so, we both agreed that the world isn’t ready for an insurance industry meltdown anything like that of the Banking industry during the last recession.
 
I provide financing to a lot of subcontractors (the trades). While visibility 9-12 months looking forward has looked good for the past few years, I finally have a client (a framing contractor for the major home builders) that has said something to the contrary. He stated that some of his major home builders are starting to see some issues in selling inventory in CA. Without going into specifics, he also stated that he senses something is changing in their world.
 
I’ve seen a spike in the number of unqualified (financially and expertise) in people who want to get into flipping homes. It’s becoming vogue amongst those who lack the qualification to do it at a time when the values in the San Francisco Greater Bay Area have never been higher. Somehow, 2007 peak real estate values were crazy, but the value today that are higher than 2007 are justifiable/sustainable. That’s a classic late cycle red flag.
 
During the last 3-4 years, I’ve seen more people who seek to finance new restaurants than any time in the past 20 years. This industry seems frothy. With rising rental costs for space and higher minimum wages for staff, I’m seeing pressure on the cost structure of existing operators squeeze them, while people are rushing to build out a new restaurant.
 
Finally, for the past 12-18 months, I’ve been flooded with new loan requests. I haven’t been this busy with new loan requests since the last cycle Top. Again, this seems like another last cycle red flag.
 
Hope all is well
 
“BBC”

















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OzHippy

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Re: Imminent financial collapse
« Reply #1 on: May 14, 2017, 11:59:35 am »

I am giving it very high odds that by Sept -Oct 2017 the entire global system can unravel, it should of happened long ago but the worlds central bankers have been bailing the markets out and printing unprecedented amounts of money keeping things afloat.  China, Japan and to some extent the European Central Bank are being forced to curb the money printing, there are also plenty of wars breaking out.


I recommend keeping an eye on these things, the 2007/8 crash caught me completely by surprise - I never worried about stock markets and global trade.   


On top of all the issues discussed in my previous post commodities are crashing big time also a sign of serious underlying problems.
Oil has gone below $50 a barrel, copper and iron ore (<$60) have had significant falls over the last two weeks.  Copper and iron is used for just about all manufacturing so if their prices tumble it shows global growth is faltering. 
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Gippsland-Prepper

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Re: Imminent financial collapse
« Reply #2 on: May 14, 2017, 12:01:46 pm »

My prediction for 2017 to bring in the next crash is looking good (yeah kinda the wrong word) although I will embrace it when it does happen, the world needs a shake up, and a clean out, bring it on I say. But I do wonder about some of these financial market signs/indicators, as we seem to live in an age of disinformation, fake news, and who knows what is the truth these days, as I am convinced manipulation of financial markets are done on all sorts of levels, either for financial gains or political outcomes.
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OzHippy

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Re: Imminent financial collapse
« Reply #3 on: May 14, 2017, 12:08:45 pm »

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My prediction for 2017 to bring in the next crash is looking good (yeah kinda the wrong word) although I will embrace it when it does happen, the world needs a shake up, and a clean out, bring it on I say. But I do wonder about some of these financial market signs/indicators, as we seem to live in an age of disinformation, fake news, and who knows what is the truth these days, as I am convinced manipulation of financial markets are done on all sorts of levels, either for financial gains or political outcomes.

True, things look good on surface then suddenly it all goes.  The Canadian housing lender needs billions in bailout, just surfaces overnight.  The US pension and insurance companies are all broke after years of Zero interest rates, many are not.

What is happening on the ground.  An example Baltimore in the US once claimed the best city in the world, their murder rate has gone so high that they have requested federal assistance to control the crime and drugs, and they are now only coming out of winter - in summer the things get worse.

A quick vid of Baltimore from a drone, that was controlled from within a taxi as it is too dangerous to walk around. 
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Gippsland-Prepper

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Re: Imminent financial collapse
« Reply #4 on: May 14, 2017, 12:16:22 pm »

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My prediction for 2017 to bring in the next crash is looking good (yeah kinda the wrong word) although I will embrace it when it does happen, the world needs a shake up, and a clean out, bring it on I say. But I do wonder about some of these financial market signs/indicators, as we seem to live in an age of disinformation, fake news, and who knows what is the truth these days, as I am convinced manipulation of financial markets are done on all sorts of levels, either for financial gains or political outcomes.

True, things look good on surface then suddenly it all goes.  The Canadian housing lender needs billions in bailout, just surfaces overnight.  The US pension and insurance companies are all broke after years of Zero interest rates, many are not.

What is happening on the ground.  An example Baltimore in the US once claimed the best city in the world, their murder rate has gone so high that they have requested federal assistance to control the crime and drugs, and they are now only coming out of winter - in summer the things get worse.

A quick vid of Baltimore from a drone, that was controlled from within a taxi as it is too dangerous to walk around. 
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Another one that is ready to burst is the US student loan debt. It's all those snowflakes that either borrowed 100.000's or got their parents to remortgage their family homes so their kids could get a college degree of some sort, but numbers show most of them can't get that high income out of that education to pay that debt, working at a takeaway place is not enough, so most are looking at bankruptcy soon, or their parents will lose their remortgaged family homes. And last time I checked the amount of money involved is enough to break most countries. You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
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Gippsland-Prepper

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Re: Imminent financial collapse
« Reply #5 on: May 14, 2017, 12:22:22 pm »

A very good finger on the pulse for the US is this series, it is till on SBS I think, although most episodes can be found online You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login it is a very real visual indicator how things are in the US, and a good way to open some ones eys to what is going on with the ones might US of A.
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OzHippy

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Re: Imminent financial collapse
« Reply #6 on: May 14, 2017, 12:35:49 pm »

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Another one that is ready to burst is the US student loan debt. It's all those snowflakes that either borrowed 100.000's or got their parents to remortgage their family homes so their kids could get a college degree of some sort, but numbers show most of them can't get that high income out of that education to pay that debt, working at a takeaway place is not enough, so most are looking at bankruptcy soon, or their parents will lose their remortgaged family homes. And last time I checked the amount of money involved is enough to break most countries. You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login

Yeah very scary the student loan and auto loan debt is higher than the 2007 housing load debt that cause the GFC.  Housing is at least an asset even if the prices drop.  Auto and student loans there is next to nothing to recover.




 The US courts are going crazy, the woman manged to accumulate at $300,000 student loan and then tried to file for bankruptcy.
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Gippsland-Prepper

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Re: Imminent financial collapse
« Reply #7 on: May 14, 2017, 12:48:49 pm »

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Another one that is ready to burst is the US student loan debt. It's all those snowflakes that either borrowed 100.000's or got their parents to remortgage their family homes so their kids could get a college degree of some sort, but numbers show most of them can't get that high income out of that education to pay that debt, working at a takeaway place is not enough, so most are looking at bankruptcy soon, or their parents will lose their remortgaged family homes. And last time I checked the amount of money involved is enough to break most countries. You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login

Yeah very scary the student loan and auto loan debt is higher than the 2007 housing load debt that cause the GFC.  Housing is at least an asset even if the prices drop.  Auto and student loans there is next to nothing to recover.




 The US courts are going crazy, the woman manged to accumulate at $300,000 student loan and then tried to file for bankruptcy.
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Yea that was the other one I was going to mention, the auto debt. I think Aussieland is somewhat better point for point, but all the signs are there that things are heading the same way. I have tried in vain to show Americans how bad it is in their country, but most are just blinded by their patriotism or are just plain ignorant. There is no way the US can pay of their debt, the only way for them to ever get past it is for either the US files for bankruptcy, or push for a world market crash followed by world war.

The US has been living beyond their means for a long time, and Aussieland is making most of the same mistakes, the one where I think Aussieland made a huge mistake, is all that spending on useless arms/weapons, those French built subs and all those lemon fighter planes from the US, the US besides having lots of economical angles that will bring it to its kneecaps, one of their main problems is their arms budget, also NASA is a huge drain on finances. Unless the US changes its ways it will go the same way as Argentina or Russia, but at least Russia has just about paid all their debt off, and Argentina in a whole was better of going bankrupt.

But all this is part of what the elite have planned for the worlds population, reducement of the sheep.
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odzy

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Re: Imminent financial collapse
« Reply #8 on: May 14, 2017, 02:01:58 pm »

I couldn't agree any more with you GP, we spent way to much on useless crap, and remember that it's the US who forces us to spend 2% of GDP on crap or we risk loosing our US protection  ::)
I bet once the US goes broke and restarts the system they will loose world status and the shift will go to China or Russia as they seem to have enough gold to back up their economies. 
Soon we will see massive US auctions on aircraft carriers and planes at a fraction of the cost  ::)
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Re: Imminent financial collapse
« Reply #9 on: May 14, 2017, 02:12:35 pm »

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I couldn't agree any more with you GP, we spent way to much on useless crap, and remember that it's the US who forces us to spend 2% of GDP on crap or we risk loosing our US protection  ::)
I bet once the US goes broke and restarts the system they will loose world status and the shift will go to China or Russia as they seem to have enough gold to back up their economies. 
Soon we will see massive US auctions on aircraft carriers and planes at a fraction of the cost  ::)

Odz, the subject at hands is why I became a prepper. I don't have a magic glass bowl or even all the answers, but it does not take much for any one to do some reading and research, add some common sense to that and it is not hard to see this world is going down the financial shitter. But as I have said before, I have tried to open Americans eyes to all of this, most are just to patriotic and ignorant to understand the real enemy to their lives don't sit in a cave in the middle east plotting to fly planes into buildings.
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doomsdayprepper4570

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Re: Imminent financial collapse
« Reply #10 on: May 15, 2017, 08:11:11 am »

Obviously it is turning into a shithole like detroit!
But when you look at most of the smaller communities in USA they are all buggered and falling to pieces.
It is a country in decline and decay!
The cancer has spread from the smaller towns and has now infected the larger towns and cities.
There is really nothing that can save america from a collapse of many sorts.
Our smaller communities/towns are hurting here, but nothing like what is happening overseas.
I feel that government redtape and shit from agenda 21 is mainly responsible and people have lost their connections with rural communities and they think that everything they need comes from the city centre.
Sadly they are very badly uninformed and in for a rude awakening.
Most of the taxes in this country come out of rural areas in the way of royalties and such.
When they goe and there is little food then things will appear a lot clearer for the great unwashed masses!
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OzHippy

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Re: Imminent financial collapse
« Reply #11 on: May 16, 2017, 10:36:17 pm »

China suspends its bond market.
 Those with eyes on the bond market like Arkane will find this interesting - major channelise hiccups appearing.

China Suspends Bond Market After "Abnormal Fluctuations"
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Paddler

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Re: Imminent financial collapse
« Reply #12 on: May 17, 2017, 06:41:48 am »

A good insight into the real America is a show called abandoned on sbs ,you can catch it on catch up tv which I do when back in town , showcases some of the fallen over little known or publicised places there like huge shopping malls that have gone bust and just been left , and many other places left to rot

Cheers paddler ;)
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Gippsland-Prepper

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Re: Imminent financial collapse
« Reply #13 on: May 17, 2017, 10:37:27 am »

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A good insight into the real America is a show called abandoned on sbs ,you can catch it on catch up tv which I do when back in town , showcases some of the fallen over little known or publicised places there like huge shopping malls that have gone bust and just been left , and many other places left to rot

Cheers paddler ;)

Yeah real eye opener that series, I posted on it some time ago as it is a real indicator how bad things are, especially the first episode about that mall/shopping centre. Good to see you are still kicking about  :)
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doomsdayprepper4570

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Re: Imminent financial collapse
« Reply #14 on: May 17, 2017, 05:40:29 pm »

He is fitting heaters to snow caves in tassie GP!
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