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Author Topic: SHTF time to bug out - sydney  (Read 1017 times)

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redchair

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Re: SHTF time to bug out - sydney
« Reply #15 on: September 12, 2017, 02:53:30 pm »

If you have to evacuate during an emergency when government authorities are in control and have advised people to run to the hills then it should be doable relatively easily, as others have pointed out. 

But what about when you and everyone else is on their own?  People tend not to evacuate before SHTF.  Those who believe that they would be long gone before things get hairy may be right but may also be kidding themselves.  If people start getting sick do you immediately evacuate or do you continue to go to work?  If North Korea threaten an EMP attack do you jump straight in the car? When do you decide to go?  I think it is best to assume that, like everyone else, I wont be gone early - I have responsibilities I am unlikely to abandon. 

I don't need to prepare for a situation where the petrol stations are open and the roads are open and patrolled by police.
It is best to assume that travel on the roads will be dangerous, possibly forbidden, or maybe crowded to the point of being virtually impassable, that there will be no supply of goods or services, that there may be no rule of law.  There are many examples of cities that haven't been evacuated and getting out became difficult: Mosul, Sarajevo, Singapore, Marawi (right now).  But history is only a guide: both EMP and pandemic may be situations where you want to bug out but it may not be easy to get out.

I considered a motorbike but eventually dismissed it as an ultimate means. Just starting a motorbike and riding down the street may be too dangerous.  You are a very obvious and relatively easy target for anyone who wouldn't mind a motorbike with fuel and doesn't mind trying to take it from you.  If I did leave early then motor bike might be good.

I am not experienced enough at trekking to think I could safely cross the mountains through the bush or on firetrails that I don't know well.  Maybe I am speaking from ignorance, having never done it before, but it strikes me as a f***ing hard slog.  I could do it on the roads, but I assume that I will have left it too late for that option.  I would also be traveling with a wife and small child.  If you plan to walk out, you would want to have done the whole trek at least once in the good times to have a reasonable chance of success. People die in those mountains.

I see two options - boat or aircraft. If I had a seaworthy boat and was better than mediocre at sailing and had skippered on open water that would be a good option.  I am opting for aircraft first.  I have a pilot's certificate and have flown ultralight three axis quite a bit.  It isn't super expensive to learn and yes, you could teach yourself on a microlight in a paddock like Arkane suggests, but TBH that is a dumb idea.  Take off is easy but landing is easy to kill yourself.  Ultralights are generally small aircraft, microlights are like powered hand gliders. Trying to land an ultralight in a paddock will likely damage the aircraft, but a microlight is no problem. 

So my plan
option1:  make my way to the local airport (six hours walk or 30 mins by car), and fly out in an ultralight (jabiru). 
           Pros:  plenty of range (1200km) and room (weight) for all three of us and supplies,
           Cons: getting to airport, plane could be taken by someone else, fuel may not be available, viable landing area not as easy to find, electronic systems vulnerable to EMP (but still flyable)

option2: buy a microlight and keep it in my garage with fuel. take off on local street to fly out
           Pros: everything to escape right here and secure, take off and land easily almost anywhere
           Cons: lower range 400-600km (would need extra fuel to get to final BOL), tight squeeze for all of us weight wise and virtually no luggage

Con for both: cost.  Because I need the range, only an expensive microlight would do, so both options are $40k or more plus regos.  My next backup is to get better at sailing so boat becomes another option.

sorry for the long post...

tl;dr   Get a microlight :)
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doomsdayprepper4570

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Re: SHTF time to bug out - sydney
« Reply #16 on: September 12, 2017, 09:36:06 pm »

Smart move is get the flock out of city life now!
May save your life and your family's.
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Loose ends make my arse itch and I have just clipped my finger nails. So the itch flows to my trigger finger.

Arkane

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Re: SHTF time to bug out - sydney
« Reply #17 on: September 12, 2017, 11:44:01 pm »

If you make it to the airport steal something better!

Or two microlights!

Or cache some fuel at some old disused but serviceable airstrips! lots a towns have them for emergencies! some councils even mow them! Land refuel, piss, crap, stretch legs and or eat then take-off again 15min max!
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Red

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Re: SHTF time to bug out - sydney
« Reply #18 on: September 12, 2017, 11:54:47 pm »

A lot of regional towns have well maintained airstrips (that are usually not right on the edge of town) ready to go for the RFDS.
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OzHippy

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Re: SHTF time to bug out - sydney
« Reply #19 on: September 13, 2017, 08:13:18 am »

What we witnessed in Florida with the Hurricanes, people all got out, yes there were some slow spots on the high ways where there were intersections and traffic had to merge.  But the big problem was fuel - massive ques for fuel and the gov had to get police escort to get more fuel in, they also brought fuel in from ship and unloaded at the harbours. 
If tragedy stripes most will be out shopping for water and food and getting fuel - if you are prepared you can be well ahead of the pack. 


If things are left to long and you have to leave - if you are prepared and have the fuel - you just have to choose a safe route out of town.  Will there be armed gangs on the side of the road stealing things, I don;t think so they will loot the shops first then go house to house to get stuff, much easier that trying to stop a moving vehicle esp if people are moving in convoy. There is more stuff to be stolen from shops and houses than a vehicle.
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We live in interesting times!!

doomsdayprepper4570

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Re: SHTF time to bug out - sydney
« Reply #20 on: September 13, 2017, 09:35:38 am »

Shops do not usually shoot at you! :o ;D ;D ;D ;) 8)
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Loose ends make my arse itch and I have just clipped my finger nails. So the itch flows to my trigger finger.

redchair

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Re: SHTF time to bug out - sydney
« Reply #21 on: September 15, 2017, 12:06:39 pm »

I am working on getting out of the city, but there is money to be made here and I also want to be prepared for a non-SHTF world, just in case!

There are many different ways that things may pan out; each scenario is unique in some ways.  If I see it, I can leave early, but I want to be prepared for my own misjudgement where I haven't gotten out ahead of the mob, before the crunch.  Maybe there wont be gangs on the roads, but when people flee their homes what do they take?  Things of value. Many of them sentimental, but also jewellery, diamonds, pearls, money, etc. If I realise this, I'm sure gang members do, so the slow moving travelers on crowded roads may be seen as easy targets if there are no police and no expectation of consequences.  Why go house to house when the valuables will come to you if you camp in the right spot and control a major exit from the city? The houses will still be there next week.

As for stealing something better... I need to be able to fly what i take so I don't think there is much better than a Jabiru light plane.  I could still land it in a paddock nearby my BOL and I don't need more range or weight, so anything bigger is wasted advantages and more dangerous to land in sub optimal locations.  Stealing is an option but I don't want to be relying on it. My aversion to stealing would make me reticent to get out until it really was too late.  I'm not a thief by nature.  Although currently I would need to 'borrow' one of the rental planes, so I'm not in the best position. Owning one is better.

I would like the option of avoiding local airports. In light plane I can get to my final BOL easily non stop.  In a trike, the plan would be to carry extra fuel in a jerry can and land somewhere isolated on the way to refuel.
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doomsdayprepper4570

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Re: SHTF time to bug out - sydney
« Reply #22 on: September 15, 2017, 11:35:46 pm »

I am not keen on knocking off others gear.
But for me local government equipment and government supplies from hospitals etc etc are all fair game.
Really that is what you pay your rates and taxes for! :o 8)
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Loose ends make my arse itch and I have just clipped my finger nails. So the itch flows to my trigger finger.
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