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Author Topic: How fast do you think it will happen?  (Read 20073 times)

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Jason

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How fast do you think it will happen?
« on: August 06, 2013, 08:28:41 pm »

Once a financial collapse starts (some would say it has already started), how fast do you think it will take to be an all out crash?

The reason I ask is the speed and flow of a all out financial collapse significantly changes the way you need to prepare for it.

I will explain what I mean in a couple of examples, however there could be many other variations to what I'm thinking.

Example 1 - Drawn out gradual collapse - 5 years duration
In this situation the economies of countries degrade slowly in the first year or two, first hitting small businesses, with large businesses cutting jobs to maintain dwindling profits, low income earners find themselves out of work and more and more people end up on government welfare. Following this industries considered luxury services start to decline (travel, fashion, beauty etc) over the next 12 months or so with a lot more small to mid size businesses going bust. During this time the reserve banks reduce interest rates to try to stimulate growth, but as the percentage of people with stable incomes decreases this does not work. Prices for essential goods increase as there is both a reduction in the production of these goods, and increased demand from the few people able to afford these things.The next steps are a more rapid decline of bigger businesses, more and more unemployment and a growing crime rate with reduced police and support services to deal with it. In the final year there reaches a tipping point where the government does not get enough income from taxes and can not borrow from world banking organisations to the point that there is mass unemployment and the government collapses. In this situation people that can maintain employment extend themselves on credit cards, re-mortgage of their homes and personal loans to get by. When they eventually lose their jobs the banks repossess their homes and other assets and are sold off to wealthy investors that still have the money to buy these now dirt cheap properties and rent them back to the now homeless for whatever they can get.

Example 2 - Rapid financial crash - 3-6 months
In this example the powers that be carry on printing more and more money that has no backing from a real asset such as gold to try to cover the underlying failures of the system. When the borrowing capacity of governments is exceeded by their ability to pay it back one economy fails and like a row of domino's the globally entwined economy collapses in rapid succession. With this there is no time for the banks that you and I borrow to foreclose on our debts and come the final collapse the credit card bills and $400k mortgages are as worthless as the paper based currency that it was backed by.

Which do you think is likely to happen? Or is there another situation you think will be the case?
Besides the obvious solution of getting out of debt before this happens, if you are in this position when it does start, what should you do? If it is a rapid decline do you stock up on preps on credit or loans before this form of payment is no longer accepted by shops? Or is this only going to make your situation worse?
Thoughts?
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Odd Duck

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Re: How fast do you think it will happen?
« Reply #1 on: August 08, 2013, 03:21:54 pm »

I dunno how fast or even IF it will happen, but I live like it's going to happen any day now and build up my stockpile of food, clothing, shoes, heirloom seeds and anything else I can think of.
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gaz54au

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Re: How fast do you think it will happen?
« Reply #2 on: October 02, 2013, 11:09:42 pm »

Jason, I think it will happen quickly if there is a collapse! But if the word economies keep going down like they are the UN will press for a one world financial credit system so they can bring in a cashless economy! As no country has the Gold reserves to cover there worthless cash!
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TRG_OzzyMarksman

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Re: How fast do you think it will happen?
« Reply #3 on: October 03, 2013, 12:43:55 am »

I hope that it's fast as there goes my remainder on the mortgage! LoL ;D
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Overlord

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Re: How fast do you think it will happen?
« Reply #4 on: October 03, 2013, 02:10:31 pm »

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I have been reading about a 2014 massive financial collapse prediction in the US discussed by a lot of people (and those who say otherwise).

The Test Period would be the next 3 months.  If there is no recovery, then the crash is imminent.

Am going to strengthen my stocks here (although I would expect the effects to hit us after a delay in time)
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Keith

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Re: How fast do you think it will happen?
« Reply #5 on: December 27, 2013, 12:32:55 pm »

It is happening right now for my family. Abbot's cuts to community based services to line the pockets of the wealthy & the mining companies will bring financial problems to all lower income families. We are looking at having to sell my car & move other family members back into our home. On top of having less money, the local council is putting the rates up yet again. In the end I can see land owners having to sell because they can't pay the rates. But then where do we go? Where can we grow our own food? If one can't pay the rates, then you certainly can't pay rent !!!
On top of this Abbot has prioritized mining over land holders wishes & drinking water. I have no idea what Abbot's purpose is in doing this, he is certainly not working for the common people. I foresee some very hard times ahead for the non wealthy, unless there is a revolution.
What we lose today, we are unlikely to get back tomorrow, regardless of who the Prime Minister is.
Keith.
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pheniox17

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Re: How fast do you think it will happen?
« Reply #6 on: December 27, 2013, 12:59:17 pm »

political issues will help drive a financial collapse... (if labor was in, it would happen sooner, I don't agree with what Abbott is doing, but I'm hoping to see a.result, and we were warned that the government is in huge debt in the last election campaign.... but I will leave it there)

when it will happen, the USA dollar will be the first to completely FAIL then the GBP... we will take a massive hit but will be less effected than others (possibly the only good thing Gillard done, allow direct $$ trade with China)

the recovery, I hope the UN dose not introduce a world currency... as it's a hollow organization as it is (3 Indian troops killed in a south Sudan refugee camp, UN response.. "we do not condone those actions" - director general)

we will slowly recover, and come out quite strong compared to the rest of the world (Holden will have to stay and so dose ford) imports will be a little better on small items, exports will cut back.... oh your super will be gone (thanks to the government) and excuses will be made.....

basically here we will feel the initial wave (like the last rescission) and will start a recovery process

crime will rise tho... but it is what it is, this is not as world changing as some are predicting, but will hurt
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ThatFamilyGuy

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Re: How fast do you think it will happen?
« Reply #7 on: December 27, 2013, 01:21:30 pm »

It doesn't matter who is in government shit can hit the fan economically any time, I agree, but unlike the liberals made it out to be (prior election), our national debt is no where near as bad, especially for our economy and where it sits, that's why post election they're all hush hush about it.
The job losses won't help delay an economic collapse, and the mistreatment of the majorities/minorities won't help delay a revolution of sorts.
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pheniox17

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Re: How fast do you think it will happen?
« Reply #8 on: December 27, 2013, 01:44:55 pm »

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but unlike the liberals made it out to be (prior election), our national debt is no where near as bad,
i strongly disagree with you there, going from a surplus (Howard) to billions in debt (2 labor turms) and what do we have to show for it (I support 2 bailout packages, the insulation, and solar) but everything else.... where is the value???

sorry I want to avoid a political debate (but we can agree hopefully that when the finance bubble bursts, Australia will withstand it better than most, if not all the western world)
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Kenna

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Re: How fast do you think it will happen?
« Reply #9 on: December 27, 2013, 10:47:23 pm »

I hope you guys are right about Australia faring better than expected when coming out of the coming financial crisis! I've got to agree with Keith (I'm in the same size boat) - our land rates increase every year, our water rates are skyrocketing, food in the supermarket keeps increasing in price while decreasing in variety, the cost of fuel keeps going up and people around here who are on a low income are struggling now.
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pheniox17

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Re: How fast do you think it will happen?
« Reply #10 on: December 27, 2013, 11:01:14 pm »

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I hope you guys are right about Australia faring better than expected when coming out of the coming financial crisis! I've got to agree with Keith (I'm in the same size boat) - our land rates increase every year, our water rates are skyrocketing, food in the supermarket keeps increasing in price while decreasing in variety, the cost of fuel keeps going up and people around here who are on a low income are struggling now.

got that right, and will struggle some more... but we won't get hit as bad as elsewhere (homeless rates won't skyrocket, food is still obtainable, etc etc)

fuel has been sitting around the $1.50 mark in seqld, still too high as the value of oil has dropped, but the Ozzie $ has dropped to, but interest rates have remained steady, all utility bills are increasing at a alarming rate, if power keeps its current rate, we will be hurting some more....

but compare us to the rest of the world, we have a better chance of bouncing back than anyone else... it will take something really bad before we go hungry...

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ThatFamilyGuy

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Re: How fast do you think it will happen?
« Reply #11 on: December 27, 2013, 11:25:52 pm »

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but unlike the liberals made it out to be (prior election), our national debt is no where near as bad,
i strongly disagree with you there, going from a surplus (Howard) to billions in debt (2 labor turms) and what do we have to show for it (I support 2 bailout packages, the insulation, and solar) but everything else.... where is the value???

sorry I want to avoid a political debate (but we can agree hopefully that when the finance bubble bursts, Australia will withstand it better than most, if not all the western world)


Google how much Howard cut from the public sectors, and the privatisation of major facilities (air ports), its easy to see why there was a surplus, even still, for a few years it was only ever a minor surplus anyhow. Plus, if a government doesn't spend money at the beginning or prior a recession, the repercussions will be tenfold, just look at the US.
Any who, compare the Aussie debt to any other advanced nation, we sit dead last.
Our debt is not as bad as what it was made out to be.
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pheniox17

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Re: How fast do you think it will happen?
« Reply #12 on: December 27, 2013, 11:36:13 pm »

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You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
but unlike the liberals made it out to be (prior election), our national debt is no where near as bad,
i strongly disagree with you there, going from a surplus (Howard) to billions in debt (2 labor turms) and what do we have to show for it (I support 2 bailout packages, the insulation, and solar) but everything else.... where is the value???

sorry I want to avoid a political debate (but we can agree hopefully that when the finance bubble bursts, Australia will withstand it better than most, if not all the western world)


Google how much Howard cut from the public sectors, and the privatisation of major facilities (air ports), its easy to see why there was a surplus, even still, for a few years it was only ever a minor surplus anyhow. Plus, if a government doesn't spend money at the beginning or prior a recession, the repercussions will be tenfold, just look at the US.
Any who, compare the Aussie debt to any other advanced nation, we sit dead last.
Our debt is not as bad as what it was made out to be.

per person our debt is high and will take years to pay off, but tell me what substantial investment have you seen these $$ goto, they were wasted

Howard sold a lot of assets (and disagree with it completely) and Abbott is going to do the same...

this is going to have to into a class of view where we have to agree to disagree
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Keith

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Re: How fast do you think it will happen?
« Reply #13 on: December 28, 2013, 09:42:28 am »

I am not into politics, I fully admit that most of that stuff goes right over my head. What I do understand though is that our family is in for a hard time. As Kenna said, people are feeling the pinch. You can talk about how WE will not be effected as much, & WE will make a better recovery, but who is WE? Australia? Fine, but meanwhile here on the ground people are going to hurt. I don't give a damn about how WE fair against the U.S. What I care about is us personally & people like us. Whilst Australia may survive, for many people in Australia it will mean the end of our present lifestyle as we know it, & many people will not recover in the future.
Keith.
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pheniox17

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Re: How fast do you think it will happen?
« Reply #14 on: December 28, 2013, 12:49:46 pm »

we is in Australia, yes
we are all in for a hard time
and believe it or not we haven't recovers yet from the rescission (unemployment rates are bs, work for the dole counts as being employed) the interest rate has been at a low level now for a very long time.. when they decide to raise these rates it's going to get harder

but we will all still have the basics to survive, we will.struggle, some will go under financially, but you will still be fed, etc, a lot of other countries (to put into perspective) you would starve on the streets
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keep on prepping, keep on prepping, keep on prepping, prepping, prepping (modified song of finding nemo)
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