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Author Topic: How fast do you think it will happen?  (Read 20078 times)

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SuperMario

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Re: How fast do you think it will happen?
« Reply #30 on: August 04, 2014, 09:25:56 am »

Things are going crazy pear shaped on may fronts at the moment ..... I read the news and sit back shaking my head , the world is going nuts..... Its just cant keep going this way. Somethings gotta give soon....
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lew

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Re: How fast do you think it will happen?
« Reply #31 on: August 04, 2014, 12:25:21 pm »

it is certainly looking that way, it will be a complex collapse in the end, when trade stops that will be the cruncher, but I read a few minutes ago about a terrorist threat to London using material containing ebola.
There is a category 5 storm heading toward China, a major flood there or in Vietnam can affect production and imports and rattle the global economic system, as I said, complex.
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Keith

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Re: How fast do you think it will happen?
« Reply #32 on: August 04, 2014, 12:44:51 pm »

The problem with this sort of survival situation, is that Tony Abbott & the local councils will still want their pound of flesh.
Keith.
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frank6th

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Re: How fast do you think it will happen?
« Reply #33 on: August 20, 2014, 09:47:47 am »

Wow I love Jason's opening of this topic.
I cant help myself; We have built a society on certain values the price of food the price of commodities and this has set our wages and living standards. But we forget too easily that leaving the subsist-ant farming was only possible with cheap and plentiful energy and as energy costs fell we prospered.

In 2004 we passed peak oil production...to many the significance of this is not apparent, so let me give you a glimpse;  We have surveyed enough of the world to know we have found and tapped into all the biggest and best oil deposits, yes there are more to find but they are harder and more costly to get too and extract from. The oil wells we are tapped into are getting less productive and we are never going to be able to reach the same high production targets we hit in 2004 ever again.

We have not felt to much pain because we are on the cusp of the peak and have had a global financial crisis to curb demand, but from here on it gets rough. First effects will be price rises in petrol, diesel and aviation fuel.. those increased cost will impact food prices and many businesses with high fuel cost inputs. My research suggest currently the price of fuel would have to go up to about $6 per liter before we would stop using our cars to take the kids to school and drive to work. Long before $6 per liter, food costs and unemployment will rise, reducing the discretionary spending of the masses. With less fuel being sold fuel supply outlets will close. Governments will be placed under increasing demand for assistance while at the same time will have a shrinking revenue bases. Cuts of Government spending will have to be right across the board including education, with follow on cuts impacting all aspects of the service sectors as we know them as their inputs costs grow and revenue steams reduce.

Whats that mean to me; possibly run away inflation as money losses value and government prints more, feeding yourself becomes the prime objective above all other needs. Possibly no reticulated services at all and no medical care into my old age. Maybe a breakdown in law and order as Governments can no longer govern effectively prompting local rule, ( which could be good or bad). 

If that is not doom and gloom enough for you, as time passes the spiraling collapse impact on our medical services would see us revert back to pre hospital days. Thinking that through means going back to the dark ages of only natural births, and really high mortality rates, no medicines, only home cures. Our race only survived in the old days by Women basically being kept basically in full time child rearing,( (either pregnant or lactating). With the high mortality rates caused by lack of medical services anything less than flat out child rearing would see us die out , that's provided our gene pool has not been weakened by cesairine section child births.

Or we could all take a vote that peak oil is a load of shit, global warming is not happening and the world is flat... all those in favor say 'I'.
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Old Codger

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Re: How fast do you think it will happen?
« Reply #34 on: August 20, 2014, 09:51:12 am »

"I"

(minus the flat earth bit that is)



OC
« Last Edit: August 20, 2014, 09:55:49 am by Old Codger »
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Gippsland-Prepper

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Re: How fast do you think it will happen?
« Reply #35 on: August 20, 2014, 10:08:39 am »

(I)

And the same as OC, earth not being flat.
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Keith

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Re: How fast do you think it will happen?
« Reply #36 on: August 20, 2014, 11:03:33 am »

Well a USA company has just found more oil off the WA coast, but that may also mean the possibility of more pollution.
As for Global Warming or Climate Change, well it is very real. I know a lot of people don't want to believe it is real but the facts speak for themselves. Anyone who lives in the bush will probably tell you that they have noticed the effects already, we certainly have & it will only get worse. We can all thank Tony Abbott for it when the SHTF. We had the chance to lead with alternative power, & now one of the largest solar companies has shelved it's project because of the Abbott government.
I hear Russia is no longer trading with us, & China is talking no more coal. Ebola has a good hold in West Africa & it is only a matter of time before it spreads worldwide if they can't control it. There is it is said no vaccine.
Employment is down, & people are finding it hard to find work & accommodation. The government has cut funding to many sectors of community services, this will impact the homeless & those women in crisis from domestic violence. This is all likely to increase the crime rate.
For many people, the need to survive is here & now. I have part of my family moving back into the family home, & my wife is about to lose her job through cuts & closers in the community service areas. Fortunately she is skilled & much sort after, but this will still at least mean a drop in income, so we will have to tighten our belts.
Our largest expenditure is in insurance & rates. We get nothing in return for paying rates accept permission to continue living on our own land !!! Same with the PP Board payments, we get nothing & don't want anything they have to offer. It is all a big rip off. No wonder so many people wish the sh*t would hit the fan !!!
Keith.
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lew

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Re: How fast do you think it will happen?
« Reply #37 on: August 20, 2014, 02:06:49 pm »

Mobiil has done studies and say they have enough access to oil for the next 23 years, I do not know what that means, then there are biofuels, LPG, natural gas and so many other ways of producing the necessary fuel. However, that does not mean these things will be affordable, and even if you do not believe in climate change, air water and soil pollution are real. So a limit has to be placed somewhere.
Re Flat Earth, I think that is the Tony Abbot camp?
China will still buy coal, they are not moving away from coal fired systems, only closing old ones and opening new ones further away from dense populations.
I believe the financial collapse could be very quick, no warning, well no warning to us.
But the following collapse of society will be slower. We all have plans, so does the government.
They have planned for terrorist attacks, major cyclones, economic collapse and so on, it is all integrated, the banks are in on it, so are the fuel companies, major transport etc. So in Australia, I believe in most areas it will be a slow decline. Look at disasters anywhere in the world, and look at the aid that comes in, we would be much better equipped and supplied than that.
HOWEVER, this just means an interim period of rationed fuel, power, food, water restrictions and so on,
too late then to begin long term preps. Of course in a disaster some places may be hit hard and fast, imagine things falling apart when your area is hit by cyclone or bushfire.
Well, that is my 15 cents worth.
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Bullshit Detective

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Re: How fast do you think it will happen?
« Reply #38 on: August 31, 2014, 07:52:29 am »

Before I start I'd like to say that I'm not an economist so my comments on the geo-political economic system is merely my opinion from the limited perspective I have.

With US politicians being legally bribed by bankers it's only at matter of time until greed becomes excessive.

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All my mates thought I was a bit nuts, then we broke down while out bush. Now they all prep.

Keith

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Re: How fast do you think it will happen?
« Reply #39 on: August 31, 2014, 09:24:21 am »

It might pay to keep your eyes on the erupting volcanoes active at present. Especially the one in Iceland.
Right now we are in a downward spiral from climate change. This is very serious & not to be taken lightly. Tony Abbott's refusal to embrace alternate clean energy & his push to burn more fossil fuels will speed our demise considerably. If you grow your own foods, I suggest you pay attention to the changes in climate & what you need to do to keep your garden productive. Right now this situation may seem to be playing out slowly, but in fact it will speed up very quickly. Heat will be our biggest problem in Australia.
Keith.
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Old Codger

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Re: How fast do you think it will happen?
« Reply #40 on: August 31, 2014, 09:28:55 am »

WOTTA LOTTA............


OC
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frank6th

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Re: How fast do you think it will happen?
« Reply #41 on: August 31, 2014, 10:16:11 am »

Hi guys, great discussion. My feeling is that we totally underestimate the oil situation. The oil companies will continue to find more oil deposits, but each new find is smaller or harder to extract and the finds are not keeping up with the down turns anymore. Our wheel of society run on oil, we seem to forget natural gas production is not possible without oil, coal mining is not possible without oil.
The death spiral for oil dependence is only going to accelerate like a self for filling prophecy.
I think we have missed our chance at weening ourselves off oil and are now looking at a future of sub sistance, with a lot of pain getting there.
I guess as preppers it is the pain of being forced back to self sufficiency that we can lesson for our selves. At least that is my current view.
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SuperMario

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Re: How fast do you think it will happen?
« Reply #42 on: August 31, 2014, 11:05:41 am »

I think its a little bit of everything - all pushing society to the brink ....

Could be any one of a gazillion things thats the trigger for complete anarchy .... The world is a tinder box at the moment , will only take one spark.


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Bullshit Detective

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Re: How fast do you think it will happen?
« Reply #43 on: August 31, 2014, 12:14:45 pm »

You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
It might pay to keep your eyes on the erupting volcanoes active at present. Especially the one in Iceland.
Right now we are in a downward spiral from climate change. This is very serious & not to be taken lightly. Tony Abbott's refusal to embrace alternate clean energy & his push to burn more fossil fuels will speed our demise considerably. If you grow your own foods, I suggest you pay attention to the changes in climate & what you need to do to keep your garden productive. Right now this situation may seem to be playing out slowly, but in fact it will speed up very quickly. Heat will be our biggest problem in Australia.
Keith.

Scientifically Tony Abbott and his right wing ideologies won't have much of an impact at all, let alone considerably. Yes Australia should be moving towards renewable energy as it's the responsible thing to do but most of the country voted for a conservative in bed with business party. Australia pales in comparison to other polluters. I'm not going to get into an argument about it but nothing tony abbott does or doesn't do will have a "considerable" impact on climate change. I am in fact pro renewable energy and anti-stupid people so I'm not defending the man but what you've said has no real validity.
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All my mates thought I was a bit nuts, then we broke down while out bush. Now they all prep.

lew

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Re: How fast do you think it will happen?
« Reply #44 on: August 31, 2014, 12:29:33 pm »

Frank6th
Quote
The oil companies will continue to find more oil deposits, but each new find is smaller or harder to extract
Is so amazingly true, in the pioneer days in America, oil was on the surface, they had no use for it of course, and it was a problem when the good ol cowboys would take cattle cross country, cattle would get thirsty and try to drink the stuff.

BD,
you gave me a fright, you mentioned Tony Abbot and "scientific" in the same sentence. Though I really suspect he is not as stupid as he makes out and merely following other agendas. The old saying, lies, damn lies and statistics. Australian politicians have never been to bright, while I believe we should embrace renewable energy sources, reduce pollution, I do get annoyed when the finger is pointed at Australia, we do have one of the highest per capita carbon footprints, but one of the lowest per hectare.
Australia is a country rich in mineral resources but very poor in arable soil and rainfall. Our population growth is fed by sale of minerals, at best without this income we may manage a population of 8 million, and not easily.
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