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Author Topic: Financial armageddon  (Read 3709 times)

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rwa

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Financial armageddon
« on: June 02, 2018, 10:27:13 am »

I have absolutely no doubt the world is heading for a massive financial implosion - it will be so bad it will make the Great Depression look like a fart in a fan factory.

We had the GFC (which we really didn't have in Oz as our Gubbermint, thanks to Treasurer Costello had no debt) followed by the Greek debt crisis. All the while the economies of Italy, Spain, Portugal and a few others were bubbling along on the brink.

That the world has survived being insolvent as long as it has astounds me and can be attributed to Gubbermints borrowing to keep the leaky boat afloat a bit longer. I have a history in finance - at the dirty end though - I would repossess your car if you skipped enough payments, boot you out of your house when interest rates went through the roof in the 80's and you couldn't make the payments. I also did the paperwork to get you into Court so a Magistrate/Judge could order seized any assets you might have thought you squirreled away (that I found).

So, I have a bit of an idea what happens when the debt gets out of control - the repo agents move in.

Trouble with kicking the can down the road is that sooner or later someone is going to miss the kick and the whole mess is going to go to hell in a handbasket.

One of the worlds biggest banks is in trouble........

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A couple of countries in the EU are in trouble.........

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Sooner or later a domino will fall. Of course, we could always get blindsided by WW3. Or a some type of pandemic - the roots of which are probably bubbling away in some hut in some shithole in China or Africa. That there will be a worldwide pandemic, a slate wiper if you like, is also a certainty and while it could break out tomorrow it may also be a few generations away.

The financial SHTF is foreseeable in my time left on this Earth. Like a major earthquake - you don't know it's coming until it has happened.
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OzHippy

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Re: Financial armageddon
« Reply #1 on: June 02, 2018, 09:41:17 pm »

Agreed, but I don't think generations but months.   EU is in major trouble Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain  in crisis mode as well, now South America is folding.  Venezuela gone, Argentinian applying for emergency IMF bail out, Brazil busy folding. 


All this happening while reserve banks are still doing QE in Japan, EU, UK China - interest rate are climbing China now borrows over $2 for every on dollar in GDP increase.   
80% of gains in the US stock market are due to just 5 companies and then there is massive company buy back of shares using borrowed money (marginal lending), PE rations well a above 20/1  - all the same symptoms prior to a major collapse. 


There will be a 6 month banking holiday with no financial transactions taking place very soon. 
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OzHippy

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Re: Financial armageddon
« Reply #2 on: June 02, 2018, 09:42:46 pm »

"I Arrived In Brazil In The Middle Of The Zombie Apocalypse..."
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« Last Edit: June 03, 2018, 03:19:39 pm by OzHippy »
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Pedro

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Re: Financial armageddon
« Reply #3 on: June 03, 2018, 08:35:49 am »

All very interesting but puzzling to a simple prepper like me.

I can understand Mad Max scenarios and need for hunting and foraging but
just what goes on at the first stages of a major financial collapse as envisaged?

I can GUESS that banks might close their doors to prevent a run (on the money which isn't there),
but does someone KNOW what the banks/government procedures are likely to be and their
likely effects on the prepper in the street?

Does 'no financial transactions taking place' mean that supermarkets can't buy food for sale,
businesses can't operate hence sack all employees? Is my cash usable anywhere?

Would certainly like to have some idea what to expect as the transition from BAU to SHTF is going to be
difficult anyway.
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rwa

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Re: Financial armageddon
« Reply #4 on: June 03, 2018, 10:17:10 am »

I have no idea how the mess will go down Pedro. When I was in finance and later recovery and the economy was tanking we would seize and liquidate what assets we could and it was business as usual - losses were factored into the bottom line.

My late Dad lived through the great depression which went from '29 right up to the start of WW2 here (war seems good for business?) and I spoke to him at length about what it was like and how they got through it. That was nearly 100 years ago and it is light years away now from what it was then.

My opinion is that there will be a single event that will "trigger" the meltdown but gubbermints will try and keep a lid on it by propping mess up. So, for a while at least anyone who has cash stashed can do well. Gives you a chance to top off the perishable supplies - fuel, canned stuff, batteries (you do have a list of what to grab if you had a 2 day window don't you?).

Then again, we could wake up one morning to find the ATM's and Banks shut and fuel supplies seized. That is when it will get nasty and the last thing anyone should be doing is saying, "Shit, I wish I had ....... (insert whatever you have run out of here!) .........
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Gympiegoat

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Re: Financial armageddon
« Reply #5 on: June 03, 2018, 12:46:38 pm »

Read up on what happened in Bosnia during the war & what is happening in Greece among the unemployed & what is happening in Venezuela now. The economy stalls, jobless numbers increase, businesses shut or lay off staff especially mom & dad businesses. Empty shops everywhere & those still open carry less & less stock.
So get your veggie garden going & start prepping. You will need at least 3 months food to get you through till the Gov. organizes itself if it does & if it is a long lasting disjointing, war or collapse, you will need lots more.
Have cash set aside for council rates, petrol, bills & an immediate stock up from your rural supplier. Seeds, chook food etc.
Depending on what you have now you might find this list will give you ideas. Everyone's needs being different.
100 things that disappear first.
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OzHippy

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Re: Financial armageddon
« Reply #6 on: June 03, 2018, 03:38:19 pm »

Banks close as there is no liquidity.  Shops will still accept cash and might even give a discount to get rid of perishable stock. 


In our current society most people expect the gov.  to help them so they will start demonstrations that will soon get out of hand and loot shops.  Food security less than  at any time in history, people don't have veg gardens or chickens in the back, there is concentrated housing and population density are much higher. 


Large percentage of people live on medication and with an ageing population it is going to be horrendous.    If people cant be paid and have no food how long till essential services like power stop, and fuel runs out.   In Brazil after 5 days of striking fuel ran out no feed for chickens shop shelved emptied.  That is just one country that is is still functional and there is always outside assistance, but a global collapse is something very different. 
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rwa

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Re: Financial armageddon
« Reply #7 on: June 03, 2018, 03:48:59 pm »

I want the boat to float a bit longer - 1 year is enough, 2 ideal. I bought my forever place a few months ago, a few acres right on the NSW South Coast. Great soil, terrific growing season, consistent rainfall all year round and fairly mild climate. Cant relocate until a bit after Xmas I'm thinking. Will always keep the retreat in the mountains as it is game rich and to hell and back hard to get to - even harder if I use the dozer to "fix" the access track. Would have to get pretty bad before I bailed out and moved there though.

A lot of what is on the "100 items" list I don't need and pretty much what I do need I already have.

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doomsdayprepper4570

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Re: Financial armageddon
« Reply #8 on: June 03, 2018, 09:05:02 pm »

I need some time until xmas to finish off financials.
If things go poof then all good anyways.
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Loose ends make my arse itch and I have just clipped my finger nails. So the itch flows to my trigger finger.

Pedro

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Re: Financial armageddon
« Reply #9 on: June 04, 2018, 06:42:52 am »

Good to see what others think and to check out what has happened to other countries.
Still don't KNOW how it will pan out but now pretty sure nobody knows for sure,
but it ain't gonna be pretty.

As a result have decided on my prepping tactics for the occasion.
1) Continue living and prepping as before.
    I.E. keep working on the veggie garden
    Maintain limited stocks of food, fuel and consumables and cash in the hand.
    Go to town once a week to top up what has been used and maybe add a few items to raise stock levels.
2) Monitor news, stock market, prepper sites for indications of imminent collapse.
    If collapse appears to be happening try to get idea what is happening locally
    with low key phone calls to see if things are operating normally or not.
3) If it looks like things are going down the gurgler;
    DON'T go to town, DON'T talk about it to 'friends', neighbours or officialdom.
    They could all be your enemies when they are starving and they remember that
    they saw you stocking up at the supermarket, or you seem to know what you are doing.
    It's not worth getting one more weeks worth of supplies and being marked as a hoarder
    or just someone who might have food when others are starving.

All sounds selfish and heartless I know but you can be a bit more generous when the
situations is more stable in one way or another (and you are still alive).
Or maybe you reacted to a false alarm and BAU continues to struggle on.
Then you will be glad that you weren't noted but were just one of the sheep.

Notes to self;
 Get another possum trap this week. (Easy to catch and said to be less gamey than other wildlife).
 Don't get any more pasta. Definitely doesn't taste so good one year after it's 'best before' date.
 Fill couple more jerry cans and the tank with fuel, but at an out of town gas station haven't used before.
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grenadier

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Re: Financial armageddon
« Reply #10 on: June 04, 2018, 07:38:34 am »

All good thinking, Pedro.
I collect books and candles for the long secret nights ahead.
Vegetable seeds.
Should get another couple of bricks of 22LR.
Salvaging car radio/stereo systems for the 12v solar setup. I don't need anything bigger. Basic is beaut and less is more and it all depends on who's telling the story.
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Red

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Re: Financial armageddon
« Reply #11 on: June 04, 2018, 10:46:40 am »

I was thinking about this last night in terms of current fuel prices. There is no reason, other than greed, for fuel prices to be as high as they are right now. Aussies are being gouged, and our government couldn't give a fat rats clacker about us. Is it going to get to the point where most of us can't afford to fuel up, therefore can't afford to get to work, or go spend everything on unnecessary crap that we are convinced we need? Are they deliberately pushing us to the point where we are so far in the shit that we can't recover?

Also, rwa, when reposessing things during the 80's if you couldn't find it you couldn't take it! My dad and his mate buried a Versatile (big 4wd tractor) and a D9 Dozer. Literally dug a pit and buried them. My dad had gone bankrupt and lost his farms and everything on them, but saved his mate from going down too and the gear was dug up later after the bank stopped looking for it and used for years afterwards.
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doomsdayprepper4570

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Re: Financial armageddon
« Reply #12 on: June 05, 2018, 11:06:35 am »

OMG she lives! Howdy Red!
Any rain out your way girl?
Getting dry here.
I usta work for a debt collection agency at one time, but most of the debts were small fry crap.
Not like primary producers getting anally raped by banks after paying back more than they had originally borrowed in the first place and still having your block taken? Seriously, WTF is it with banks and other finance groups?
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Loose ends make my arse itch and I have just clipped my finger nails. So the itch flows to my trigger finger.

Red

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Re: Financial armageddon
« Reply #13 on: June 05, 2018, 12:27:38 pm »

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OMG she lives! Howdy Red!
Any rain out your way girl?
Getting dry here.
I usta work for a debt collection agency at one time, but most of the debts were small fry crap.
Not like primary producers getting anally raped by banks after paying back more than they had originally borrowed in the first place and still having your block taken? Seriously, WTF is it with banks and other finance groups?

Yeah sorry, been a bit busy with life  :o How have you been? How long since it rained there? I hear that the drought is even worse than it was  :'(
It finally rained here last week, first rain since we had about half a ml in Feb! Things are sloooowly starting to green up, but we aren't seeding yet.

Banks are the worst thieves there are. And they are protected by every bloody level of government and the law! And they are now not only stealing farmland they are buying it.......Macquarie bank owns an agricultural company that is buying up big farms in WA.....they know the only future is in feeding the hordes and want their piece of it!
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hailesellasie

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Re: Financial armageddon
« Reply #14 on: July 05, 2018, 04:34:13 pm »

Hey all,
Since I've been through a similar thing (twice) in the dark continent, this is what happened, just to give you an idea, as not many people have experienced it:

Curfew they first implemented a 20hr curfew...a couple of hours to get to the shops (which were quickly emptied)
Servos - closed
Banks/Atms - closed
No electricity
No water
We used gas cylinders, but no-one brought you refills
Widespread looting, the army made short work of looters anyway..Life's cheap there...
Cops were/are just about useless in these situations
Criminal gangs going around shooting people, robbing/invading homes/raping and pillaging.

So my good ol' dad, gave me the 12G semi-auto, and he had his 30-06.."Anyone trying to get in, you shoot, no questions"...
Amen to that Dad.....Amen to that...
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