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Author Topic: Post-SHTF cooperation avoids murder  (Read 4517 times)

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Gympiegoat

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Re: Post-SHTF cooperation avoids murder
« Reply #45 on: July 26, 2018, 07:35:15 pm »

Every generation says that the coming generation is weak & lacklustre. I am sure that when the chips are down a sufficient number of Aussie battlers will rise to the task ahead.

If there is a bad enough crisis to bring down civilization Indonesia & the Philippines will collapse too so they will be no threat, in fact they will be worse off as they start with a lower Gov. health service infrastructure & already have trouble with Bird Flu & SARS & who knows what else. The muslims will most likely go on a killing spree to cleanse the countries of Catholics & other non muslim groups or Durate will get in first. In other words both countries will truly collapse.

Another problem all countries around the equator face is the wet bulb effect of a warming planet. If you think Darwin's climate is bad, it will be even worse on island nations surrounded by water.

As I said earlier forget the 1850's. I do not know the exact figures but almost 20% of Australian households have solar & another 9,500 get it each day. Collapse will not be overnight unless there is a meteor strike. People & Gov. will have weeks to months to years to adapt & find alternative methods to solve problems & there will be a lot less people. If you want to cover your shed with solar panels there will be plenty available & hundreds of trucks with batteries. There are three big readymix & many truck yards in Gympie & a lot fewer people everywhere.

Most big towns & cities have steam enthusiasts, garden clubs, permaculture groups, seedsaver groups, there are about 2,000 members on Oz Prepper & that is only one Prep group in Aust. How many engineers, mechanics, blacksmiths, farmers & other practical people, CES volunteers, rural fireries, fishermen etc & their immediate circle in the country who will not get caught with their pants down!

On the street I live there are 15 x 5 acre properties, almost all with fruit trees, dam, veggie garden & chooks. Some have horses, some have ducks, some have guinea fowl & some have goats. Gympie is surrounded by such properties & so are most other town around Aust. It will not take long for people to get their act together.

If we are not exporting food overseas there will be plenty to eat, if a simple diet. Over 500 million chickens. 26 million head of beef, 60 - 70 million sheep, 5 million pigs & 44 million roos. If we run out of meat we can always trade with NZ for a few of their 30 million sheep.

Millions of chickens could be produced in a very short time & distributed around the country if there was a need.

Aust.  produced about 40 million tonnes of grain in 2010. Plenty for damper or sourdough.

Distribution you say! Aust. has plenty of functioning steam locos. I think there are 21 in Qld & there are several others at the Ipswich workshops & elsewhere that could be made operational. Other states would have some too & there are plenty diesel engines about & the Fed. Gov. would have emergence fuel set aside for the military & such use.

Buggar! Just missed a PM from Doomie. Was engrossed in writing the above post.
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doomsdayprepper4570

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Re: Post-SHTF cooperation avoids murder
« Reply #46 on: July 26, 2018, 07:38:35 pm »

Yeah and here I thought you were ignoring me  :(
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Loose ends make my arse itch and I have just clipped my finger nails. So the itch flows to my trigger finger.

Gympiegoat

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Re: Post-SHTF cooperation avoids murder
« Reply #47 on: July 27, 2018, 10:54:16 am »

Would not ignore you mate. You were not visible on screen as I was looking up about the QR diesel loco fleet. I would not have been good company last night as was very tired. I mulched 20 trees & watered 80 trees by hose, too cheap to put in irrigation, & half my bananas & the wife is crook & my back has seen better days. I find collapse scenarios intriguing. Crash = financial depression & collapse = fall of civilization. The first could trigger the second but collapse would be most likely resource depletion which could be just oil or a systemic compounding of multiple shortages including the inability to deliver supplies because of fuel shortages in a complex JIT , BAU , ponzi banking system world. Water will be a big problem for many places in the near future. The ramifications of climate change will be severe in many regions too. As a farmer you know how reliant agriculture is on stable weather.

I've said this on site many times:- a 1 deg C increase leads to more evaporation, 7% more, that leads to more energy in the climate system meaning stronger winds, more rain or desertification depending on where the rain falls & more snow if it falls as snow. We think 10 C. above normal is bad. Sweden, Alaska, parts of Japan & much of the Arctic areas are experiencing 20 - 30 C above normal. That in turn leads to more snow up there but also to more melting from warmer seas around the edges so thicker ice but a smaller area. A smaller area of ice means more ocean surface to absorb sunlight instead of ice to reflect it which compounds the problem.

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Gympiegoat

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Re: Post-SHTF cooperation avoids murder
« Reply #48 on: July 28, 2018, 01:18:56 pm »

The oil crunch is gunna hit us before the climate change crunch.

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This is why we are here & what we are prepping for.
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0zprepz0

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Re: Post-SHTF cooperation avoids murder
« Reply #49 on: July 28, 2018, 01:29:36 pm »

Quote
The oil crunch is gunna hit us before the climate change crunch.

That may be (or not), but that is not this scenario.
This thread is to develop the scenario described at the top.
Don't we have another thread for an oil crunch scenario?
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sea-dove

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Re: Back to 1850
« Reply #50 on: September 30, 2018, 05:58:49 pm »

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6. Systems run on information, and before computers it was all hand-written (or typed). That means making paper and pencils. It also means lots of clerical workers to handle all of the paperwork.

 If things were so bad that we'd got back to like a 1850s situation, there wont be all that paper about.  Technology is usually used to make paper so paper which can be handmade was rare.  Kids in the 1850s if Im remembering correctly did not write on paper but on small chalk boards when doing their lessons.  Not having paper and pens would be the one of the least of our worries if things went that bad

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So if a collection of books on certain topics, from steam engines to bee-keeping to native medicinal plants, was kept in the local library, we might have a good chance of building the necessary technology. Of course a working steam engine would be even better, but who is going to pay for it?

Forget about when things have gone very wrong about getting books from local library... cause the books there will be used for things like fire starting and for loo paper.  The only books which may stay safe are those who people have in their possession.
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sea-dove

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Re: Carrying capacity
« Reply #51 on: September 30, 2018, 06:09:30 pm »

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1. Carrying capacity
Using 1850 technology, the land can only feed XX Million, so YY% will have to die off

You might be right to think this, but I think there is no evidence that you are.
When it was 1850 in Australia, we had 405,000 people in the country. We had farms and production systems feeding them all. 25% of people worked in agriculture and pastoral activities. That is what we know.

People in the 1850's and even right into the 1900s, had their own gardens and chickens. The food gotten at markets would of only be a "supplement" to what they already were growing.  Without technology it would be very hard to grow food to feed a population without them too having a lot of input into this.

How do you propose to get this mass scale growing elsewhere to the people without technology?  Horse and cart used to be used for the milk runs. My grandfather did the very last milk run here (or one of the very last ones) in Adelaide when he was a lad (he's deceased now).  Someone mentioned "bullocks" but with food in short support those steers will be getting killed for meat. Things will have to settle down quite a bit until something like that was used to get goods about and they cant be carting likes like semi-trailers do.    As I said most food back then was grown by the families themselves.
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sea-dove

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Re: 2. Zombies
« Reply #52 on: September 30, 2018, 06:16:02 pm »

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2. Zombies
People are terrible, you cannot trust them. We're only 3 meals away from anarchy...

Perhaps these ideas reveal more about the frame of mind of the person thinking them than they do about the future.
Life without hope is sad. If people have hope, they will battle on. So give them hope.

Would you like to block the road into town with armed men and threaten innocent people?
Or would you rather encourage them to head on up the valley to the farms where they can sign on as workers?
Even being completely self-centred, it makes practical sense to divert a stream instead of trying to hold it back.
People who hope for a job and the promise of a future life are less likely to storm your compound and steal your food.

Those farms where wheat, oats, barley etc are grown, one cant suddenly turn that into prime vegetable farmland like your post seems to be assuming.  In fact vegetables would not be able to be grown on a lot of that farmland for the simple fact that vegetables require water and lots of it.   Farms which grew vegetables not only have the right land for it but also tend to have intensive watering systems in place which need power to run. Many vegetable farms also have greenhouses etc etc.  You just cant send a heap of people out to farm and expect it to work without what is needed for it to work, farming is not just all about labour (and then there is no way to get very large amounts of produce out to people).

Its as crazy an idea as what my dad had on his farm.  One year he came up with the idea that he'd turn our farm into a strawberry farm.. and that completely failed!! (and he had water, our soil was just wrong for that). Vegetables require very fertile ground and what we have done is most of our actual cities are build on that very fertile ground eg Adelaide for example.

And those farmers, dont assume they know how to grow things other then what they already grow...  just cause they are a "farmer" it doesnt mean they even know how to grow vegetables.  The person who I saw grow the best/biggest vegetables with no prior experience, he was not a farmer but actually just a city boy who's ideas i think just worked for him as he got lucky with what he tried.  Ive tried for several years to get results like he had but without luck.
« Last Edit: September 30, 2018, 06:28:19 pm by sea-dove »
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sea-dove

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Re: Objections
« Reply #53 on: September 30, 2018, 06:37:48 pm »

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3. No shelter for an influx
There is no shelter for hundreds of new farm workers on every farm

and where are you going to get all the food to feed these hundreds of "farm workers" you want sent to a farm?  Are you aware that farms specialize in what they farm depending on all kinds of things eg soil type, water available, availabiity of other things, climate in that location etc.

eg a chicken farm will be full of chicken sheds and chickens (and I guess that would go well with vegetable farming if kept separate as the chicken manure can be used to fertilize veg but ONLY if their was a very good water source available.  Chickens are usually farmed in huge sheds, you could not free range them with the veg as they would destroy the vegetables

A sheep farm will also have crops eg wheat and barley to put the sheep out on to the stubble at times etc but wont have vegetables etc etc.  Farming is very specialised, you cant throw a group of people onto a farm and say "farm" and have this work.

 All these workers you are saying send to farms, will all need to be properly fed a proper varied diet so to put hundreds of people into one location, you need then to be able to deliver what these people need but do not have.  So it isnt just a case of just simply directing the starving people on the move to farms to farm   .. AND farming takes TIME  Many crops are once a year!! and animals take time to mature.  So it will take a while for the farm to be "giving back"  and in the meantime all those people being put to work on a farm need to be fed.   

Yes shelter for them is important too but nowhere near as important as their need themselves for food!! I'd be instead thinking "how are all these people to be fed?".   People esp men working hard at any form of manual labour also need extra calories too.
« Last Edit: September 30, 2018, 06:46:15 pm by sea-dove »
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sea-dove

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Re: 3. No shelter for an influx
« Reply #54 on: September 30, 2018, 07:01:51 pm »

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3. No shelter for an influx
There is no shelter for hundreds of new farm workers on every farm

 Maybe half need to keep going to the next town, and you're going to absorb the other 60,000. 15,000 need to go out to the farms to work, leaving 45,000 new residents in and around town.
Well, you can't build ten thousand new houses in a week. Perhaps every house billets a family, depending on space available. Once they have a job they can pay rent. [edit - scratch that - billeting is probably a terrible idea.]

Nope, the people in farm towns or on farms will not want to be billeting in strangers and strange families they do not know.  They would of already had their city relatives go and move in with them when those fled the city so will have their homes already full up with family refugees.  Maybe its just those I know but the country folks seem to have bigger families then the city folks and more kids

Many people when they grew up on farms do move away to the cities.. all those ones will head back to their families and birth places. 

 Many country people can often very suspicious of "outsiders". I can say from growing up in a country town, they have a different mind set to the city folks and outsiders can take a very long time to get accepted.  (you can move to a country town and be there for 10 years and still not be fully accepted as you werent born and bred there and everyone seems related to everyone lol. I think it took my family probably about 20 years to be accepted as part of "the locals").

So yeah it would be quite interesting how the country folks may relate to the city ones who may be in for a shock.  I have farmer friends who have no quarms of even in todays time of if they see someone on their properly, they go there with the rifle pointed at the person and tell them to "get the fuck off my land".   So I'd hate to know what they'd be like in a SHTF LOL .  (I saw one guy who had the gun pointed at him from a distance away, go ass up and fall over the fence and I reckoned he would of got quite scratched up on the barb wire. He and his mate had tried fishing in a friends dam but got quickly sighted so fled so fast their rods got left behind.  My friend used to keep an eye on his dam with his binoculars.  All farmers I know have binoculars!! lol, beware).
« Last Edit: September 30, 2018, 07:04:19 pm by sea-dove »
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sea-dove

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Re: Over to you!
« Reply #55 on: September 30, 2018, 07:23:56 pm »

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OK, so there is the challenge!
Can we avoid murdering our countrymen when SHTF?
Can we instead build new systems of production with the technology and resources equivalent to 1850?

Yes, no need to murder others though other people "may" end up doing a good job at "weeding out" or killing any major problem people eg bullies. There will be bound to be some bullies in a major crisis situation who go overstepping the mark with people.

Yes we can build new systems, but it is likely to take a very long time.  Skills of old ways have been lost and will need to be regained, skills which used to be out there took generations to develop.  Networks will need to be formed eg I can work and make things with leather, its an area Im skilled in and do have the tools for but I cant do much without suitable leather to use and would need a supplier and I can not make boots so even when someone does have skill with something it doesnt mean they can do everything.

It could all take a very long time for even communities to go into a 1850s living situation by that point lots of people would of probably starved so hence best to just focus on oneself and your own family.  Other things will take time to fall into place and can only start to do so once things start to settle.


« Last Edit: September 30, 2018, 07:25:58 pm by sea-dove »
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sea-dove

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Re: Post-SHTF cooperation avoids murder
« Reply #56 on: September 30, 2018, 07:37:47 pm »

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Currently there is a dispute here on whether to restore a steam train service or a bicycle track.
A steam train service would allow workers to be brought to the farming centres from Launceston and produce
to be taken back there. (But of course SHTF is not being considered - just 'jobs, growth, tourists , money, money, money')
The city could gradually become the light industrial centre it once was, with food, timber and other
raw materials (still some coal, iron deposits around) being produced by hand labour and transported
by steam train, ( or maybe horse and cart?).

There is strong interest here in steam power and quite a few machines in working order.
I even have a 1902 engineers diary which is full of information on steam engine design.
(cost me 35 cents in 1972 - but somehow I knew it would come in handy someday).

Look forward seeing more discussion on working out some of the more tricky transition details.

The country town where Im originally from, they restored the tracks and steam powered train and it is used for trips. Ive never thought about that before but they still have silos and things still in use today near the train tracks.  In a disaster, that train can still run and it runs through lots of small towns.

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Cause the town is historic that was just one of the things they went back to.  We also had a "town crier", not sure if that is now being done by another person as the town crier (Mac he was a lovely guy) who used to be that died within past 10 years.  The town crier went through our town yelling town announcements on a hand held speaker.  I think I can also remember our town crier being used when there was the Ash Wednesday fires and he was part of our town warning (though we also had a siren)

The town still has its historic gas works place which powered the town's street lighting (now turned  into a bed and breakfast place) which was shut down just before world war 1 when electricity came into use.
« Last Edit: September 30, 2018, 07:50:44 pm by sea-dove »
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sea-dove

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Re: Post-SHTF cooperation avoids murder
« Reply #57 on: September 30, 2018, 08:10:11 pm »

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The young, old, infirm, sick & drug takers will sit in the cities till they die & cause disease & a further die off. Failed water & sewerage systems will see to that.

I dont think the sewage thing will be a big issue for us as we arent all living in packed slums with families of 9-12 to a single room and most Australians understand how some hygiene is important.  We wont go and shit where we walk and leave it uncovered on the ground like they do in some countries (I watched a documentary on a country which does that the other day as a common practice).  Most will bury their wastes even the young, old and sick will try to do this here.   I havent had a toilet I can use now for the past 5 months and though not a situation I like, its all fine, though Im living in the city I just go outside in the garden (where Im not growing things yet, lol not going in my food patches). It isnt that noticable at all that Im doing that unless I pee to often too close to my back door.

Quote
Zombies. Crims, bikies, gangs, druggies etc will add to the die off. They will not have petrol either so unless they get out of the cities fast & early will not be a major problem. It would not surprise me if they were not executed by rogue police or special army units. 

The bikies probably would do well though of cause not then on the move.  The bikies (if same club) I think often see themselves as a family so I think would stick up and help each other same with some of the gangs.

Quote
4. Forget the 1850's.  Lifestyles would be a real mishmash. Bicycles would make a big comeback but not the primitive pennyfarthings etc. We would not lose current technology, your solar panels would still work & so would your car. You would just have to convert it to a woodburner or lpg, we would not be exporting lpg either so befriend & keep your local engineer alive, all the knowledge gained since 1850 is still out there, the rail lines will still be there. We would need a lot of coal shovelers. Rail would make a big comeback.

good post, we would not be like the 1850s again as some of our knowledge would not be lost. I wonder who on earth came up with the crazy idea of bikes with one wheel in the first place lol.
« Last Edit: September 30, 2018, 08:12:47 pm by sea-dove »
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sea-dove

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Re: Post-SHTF cooperation avoids murder
« Reply #58 on: September 30, 2018, 08:43:55 pm »

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The scenario is posing the question: could you use these people as workers in any way? Would it improve the survival prospects for you, your family, your local community, to put these people to work in various useful ways to not only earn their own keep but also to benefit you?
The locals would be the upper-class land-owners and skilled in that system, if you like to think of it that way, while the urban workers would have to accept their lot.

The idea for this scenario actually came from concern for a farmer's plight. Would farmers be totally screwed without an influx of workers? The workers are going to be unskilled too, so would they be worse than useless? or could they be trained? If I was hungry, I'd be pretty focused on learning how to milk a cow, I can tell you.
It would be heart-breaking to see a farm fall into disuse for wont of a workers if they could be found.

You've failed to perceive that in country areas, there are towns in country areas. Yes they may be small towns but in a major disaster, many of those people in those country towns will not be able to do their own usual work so will be looking then for other work or ways to feed their families.  The ones then living on the farms in those country areas will prioritise giving work to those they know who already live in their country towns but who have lost their normal jobs in the crisis.

For example.. my old country town. There is a population of 6500 there..  Most of the population lives in the country town and not on a farm.  Many of them drive an hour to get to the city each day for work from this country area..something which would be no longer possible at all in a disaster scenario.  So all these locals who are already known to the farmers, will all be asking their farmer friends if they have any jobs available for them and dont forget that most farm things are seasonal!!  So farmers do not need the help all the time or things can only be planted at certain times of the year etc.

The farmers will get A LOT of help offered to them by those they know after work.  It is unlikely there will be work available on farms for city folks wanting food for work. 

If any city folk thinks they can just travel out to the country in a disaster and be welcomed in by farmers who dont know them for food, is a fool if thinking this.  This is why people should make proper plans and prep. Dont think another is going to just go and save you and a stranger at that.

Quote
If I was hungry, I'd be pretty focused on learning how to milk a cow, I can tell you.

yeah well just wanting to learn something does not make you quick at it. ::)  . Someone who hasnt done the work before usually will work slow due to lack of experience.  You may be working 5-10 times slower then those who have previous experience at that kind of work. In country towns there will be many who have at times worked out on the farms and done things be it pruning grape vines or fruit picking or whatever  (I did grape picking one time and was about 4 times slower then the others, my mum had been doing it seasonally for about 10 years).

Maybe though not hand milking a cow lol (though I used to hand milk my goat daily but I cant say I was good at it).

Quote
I can tell you.
It would be heart-breaking to see a farm fall into disuse for wont of a workers if they could be found.

Farms will not all into disuse due to lack of workers (unless it was an epidemic!!), farms would fall into disuse due to lack of having other things they need eg no longer a water supply etc etc and even with going back to the old ways, there would be things one would need eg you cant plow the land with bullocks if you dont have bullocks unless you are playing to harness up people haha  (omg, that just took my mind into places where it didnt want to go, girls who play at being ponies, no thanks haha).
« Last Edit: September 30, 2018, 09:36:53 pm by sea-dove »
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Red

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Re: Post-SHTF cooperation avoids murder
« Reply #59 on: September 30, 2018, 09:54:20 pm »

While yes I agree that the farmers would give preference to locals, friends and family members as far as "work" goes, the workforce needed to plant and harvest crops would far exceed that available in most rural areas now. With cropping it's not simply a case of employing or utilising a couple of extra people per property to do the work needed, it would be a case of hand planting crops in single runs instead of using a 60' wide air seeder bar towed behind a tractor;  hand weeding those acres multiple times instead of spraying them with a 120' wide boomspray; spreading fertilisers of some sort by hand instead of using the boomspray to spread liquid fertiliser or a tow behind spreader that can cover 60' at a time; harvesting the crop by hand with a scythe instead of a header with a 40' front. These are massively labour intensive activities that would occupy most of the year, not just the growing season. All of these activities are currently done with the help of huge machinery that have taken the backbreaking labour out of the process.
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