Oz Prepper Forum

Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length.
Advanced Search  

News:


Donate
Happy Camper
*
Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Have you missed your activation email?

Login with username, password and session length.

Select language:
* Recent Posts
Traffic
SurvivalBlog.com
*

  • *Total Posts: 50478
  • *Total Topics: 4472
  • *Online Today: 88
  • *Most Online: 573
(July 28, 2017, 02:10:33 am)
  • *Users: 0
  • *Guests: 63
  • *Total: 63
Big River
OzPrepper Minecraft Server      OzPrepper on YouTube     

Author Topic: Odds of survival - to be tested soon?  (Read 387 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Pedro

  • VIP Forum Supporter
  • *****
  • Posts: 135
Odds of survival - to be tested soon?
« on: December 05, 2018, 09:42:24 am »

Came across this pdf on Zero Hedge;

You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login

Suggests two likely scenarios, Nuclear war and financial collapse.
While I wouldn't rule out Nuclear, it seems that the financial scenario is progressing nicely.

The article gives the authors take on the likely developments once the financial system collapses.

It seems to be a logical progression which I generally agree with.
It's oriented towards the USA situation but most of the  (downward) steps would seem appropriate here.

I'm not particularly interested in the odds percentage he calculates, but the stages of collapse are interesting.
They could be of interest to new preppers here or as a reminder to long time preppers  many of whom seems to
use this site as a place to chat about the weather, water tanks etc.
(My apologies to those preppers who have already got all their preparations completed and nothing else to talk about).

P.S> WTF with the swarm of rubbish about passports etc this morning,
       Hasn't the site upgraded it's operation since the last similar attack?
Logged

Hoopy

  • Hero Member - Trade Approved
  • *****
  • Posts: 506
Re: Odds of survival - to be tested soon?
« Reply #1 on: December 05, 2018, 12:08:27 pm »

I laughed my arrsse off at the iPhone/Bitcoin summary...MORON.

Totally agree with the "Best case" scenario Pedro and the fact that it wont be pretty neither...I'd say the stages of the collapse are somewhat set in stone already for those that are clicked on even us folks out in the bush are gonna have Shit to deal with on a local level.Those gangs he refers to are already massing in the form of hard core bike clubs.I know of 3 that have hefty size properties that are actively prepping just like us and domination is at the heart of their agenda. 
Logged

Pedro

  • VIP Forum Supporter
  • *****
  • Posts: 135
Re: Odds of survival - to be tested soon?
« Reply #2 on: December 05, 2018, 12:42:40 pm »

Yeah, The IPhone not working - who'd a thunk it  Good job I don't have one.

Genuinely 'shocked' that bikies are getting that organised.
I would expect them to dominate in the early stages but didn't think they would be
seriously prepping.
Wonder though, how they would prep.
Sure they have muscle and guns (while they still have food and gas for the bikes) but what would
their long term plan involve?

Slaves is the obvious answer but it would take some other skills to collect, maintain, feed
and work a bunch of mostly soft suburbanites who are still in shock from the IPhone catastrophe.
Even if they could get a workable group together on good soil, damn spuds can't be planted
until the right time of year nor harvested until several months later.

Can't eat the slaves while waiting for the crop to grow, as need them to dig the spuds.
Well, maybe some of the weaker ones.

Would need quite a bit of management to maintain slaves, grow food and have enough
for everybody which presumably would include a large number of the dominate class
(the bikies) who would probably want to enjoy the hedonistic delights of living.
Though I suppose they wouldn't object to help producing the next generation of slaves.

Raiding existing survivors would work for a while but food needs to be grown and existing survivors
would probably have trouble feeding themselves.

If I happen to be one of the survivors and I hear the roar of bikes (or even hear from others they are in the district)
It will be Plan B and head for the hills and a guerrilla type existence with bikies in my original retreat
as the prime target.
Logged

Arkane

  • VIP Forum Supporter
  • *****
  • Posts: 1288
Re: Odds of survival - to be tested soon?
« Reply #3 on: December 05, 2018, 04:39:09 pm »

The way I see it with a general collapse
90% of people over sixty will be dead shortly after there medication runs out
Most females will stay home while any males over about 12yo will go out to scavenge food and a percentage of these will never go home and those who do will go out to scavenge day after day after day with numbers reducing by the day.
After three months or so half will be dead and all will be hungry bar a few!
Females in general will fare better as few will die but most will be hungry
but due to the attrition of males will be in dire circumstances

Children under five will not do well at all and those over five will be tested hard with about half not making the three month mark.

After one year most of those that are going to die have. Survivors have banded together and food production is under way, these survivor groups maybe run as democracys or dictatorships or whatever, most will be ruthless in power and the lowleys will suffer.
Most any female that can get pregnant will get pregnant and lots a babies will be born with maybe a failure rate of 10-20%

Life will go on, groups will fail, merge and succeed history will repeat!
Logged

Hoopy

  • Hero Member - Trade Approved
  • *****
  • Posts: 506
Re: Odds of survival - to be tested soon?
« Reply #4 on: December 05, 2018, 07:56:47 pm »

Pedro I meant seriously prepping...long life foods and the whole ten yards.
Logged

doomsdayprepper4570

  • Global Mod & VIP Forum Supporter
  • *****
  • Posts: 5203
  • Keep ur powder dry and knives sharp
Re: Odds of survival - to be tested soon?
« Reply #5 on: December 05, 2018, 09:12:48 pm »

I need to make a few more thousand caltrops I think!  8)
Hardening up the main access as best I can.
Wow I am nearly 60 and on no meds, there is hope yet.
Logged
Loose ends make my arse itch and I have just clipped my finger nails. So the itch flows to my trigger finger.

Pedro

  • VIP Forum Supporter
  • *****
  • Posts: 135
Re: Odds of survival - to be tested soon?
« Reply #6 on: December 06, 2018, 08:06:27 am »

What is survival anyway?

Seems from comments, the pdf authors assumptions
and some of the posts on this site that survival
has different meanings.

Some of the scenarios which seem to be envisaged;

1) Staying alive just for ones lifetime relying
     on stored supplies (the bikies?).

2) Staying alive until the gubmint comes and says
   "All fixed now - back to BAU".

3) Scavenging. (including taking from others).

4) Small commune or family type farming (or
    hunter/gathering) indefinitely.

5) Organisation of local community into a new
    'sustainable' society.

Have I missed an 'option'?

Some preppers don't seem to have any plan for
the future (even their own lives) beyond having
as much ammo and beans as they can afford to buy now.

Personally, as an older prepper, option 1 is the
most practical but I can't afford enough beans
and whisky (I drinks a bit) even for a few years ahead so option 4
is also necessary. (But it's getting harder each
year to grow enough food just for one as the
body weakens).

What are your prepping plans for the longer
term, say,after the initial die-back and your
triumph over those who tried to take what is yours?

Got kids or intend to have them? What are your
plans for their future?

Do you think that your neighbours can be
converted into useful contributors to a local society?

Seems to me that much of the prepping talk here lacks
any sort of timetable for;
How long stores and equipment will last
What can be grown
How is food stored over non-growing time or scarcity of wild game.
Is there a long term plan for a new society or is going tribal better
Lots of other issues, many of which will appear after SHTF.

Or is it all too hard and more fun to just discuss merits of rifles etc.

Logged

Gympiegoat

  • Hero Member - Trade Approved
  • *****
  • Posts: 578
Re: Odds of survival - to be tested soon?
« Reply #7 on: December 06, 2018, 02:27:29 pm »

What is survival = enjoying life & that also involves revelling in doom porn.

So I retired early, 61, six years ago & so wish I had retired earlier but made a mint in the last few years in business which enabled me to set up all the kids in doomsteads of their own. Youngest daughter on 5 acres would not be able to make it on her own with 2 little kids after hubby karks it from smoking too much so she would have to join the wife & me. Son, no kids, is not a worker so I have no idea what will happen to him. He is a intellectual so he might figure something out unless trapped in Melbourne in a sudden collapse. Oldest daughter, no kids, is on 50 acres & partner is a worker & comes from farming background so should be ok. They might even go to his family's farm outside Kingaroy.

1 ) At 67 & a half baked prepper I do not expect to last long but do not expect to die from starvation though I'll lose some weight. lol Not worried about bikies. Have you noticed how big Aust. is. How many sq km could they take over & run. They tend to hang together for safety & internal feuds, gang wars & gun violence will thin their ranks. If there is any army still effective it would probably declare war on bikies as their last act as there would be no justice system to reprimand them for taking the law into their own hands. Bikies will either have their own established farms already or take over prime small crop land & those are nowhere near me. I'm too worn out to be a slave. Goodbye cruel world.

2 ) Total collapse. Would take more than 5-6 years for Gov. to reestablish after & I doubt I'd last that long. I'd be in my mid 70's. No chance.

3 ) Scavanging. It will be a field day. A lot will die from salmonella.

4 ) Hope some of the local Permaculture & seed savers around me survive. My 4 immediate neighbours, all on acreage are mechanic, fitter & turner, electrician & beef fattening on 75 acres. I reckon I'm in with a chance for a while with 400 + fruit trees & other stuff. I'm still planting.



Logged

doomsdayprepper4570

  • Global Mod & VIP Forum Supporter
  • *****
  • Posts: 5203
  • Keep ur powder dry and knives sharp
Re: Odds of survival - to be tested soon?
« Reply #8 on: December 06, 2018, 04:01:10 pm »

Not much change for us in daily activities.
Can survive for a decade or more with little reliance from outside the property and my few friends.
If we were in danger of invasion from the needy, bikies, ex gov wankers etc etc.
I/we may die, but there would be many widows and wailers in the aftermath.
Assuming there would be no more rates to pay etc etc life would be not too bad.
I can tan skins from animals to make most clothing using tree bark and salt and so on.
Plenty of veges, fruit,nuts, water, seasoned timber and beef as well as game.
Enough diesel fuel and cooking oil filtration product for a very long time.
May have to alter roofing config if long winter does come as a few seem to think with our solar system
at the far end of its cycle (every 100,000 years or so). Lots to think about and continue planning and education of young ones. I am not interested in extending the lives of the unprepared and other idiots. My charity has been exhausted. Sorry anyone I offend. DILLIGAF errrr fuck no!
Logged
Loose ends make my arse itch and I have just clipped my finger nails. So the itch flows to my trigger finger.

grenadier

  • Hero Member - Trade Approved
  • *****
  • Posts: 804
Re: Odds of survival - to be tested soon?
« Reply #9 on: December 06, 2018, 05:30:18 pm »

My mob should be okay if we keep to ourselves.
Logged

doomsdayprepper4570

  • Global Mod & VIP Forum Supporter
  • *****
  • Posts: 5203
  • Keep ur powder dry and knives sharp
Re: Odds of survival - to be tested soon?
« Reply #10 on: December 06, 2018, 09:27:42 pm »

Yeah, outsiders will surely disrupt family groups and close friends.
Better the devil you know than the one you do not!
Logged
Loose ends make my arse itch and I have just clipped my finger nails. So the itch flows to my trigger finger.

grenadier

  • Hero Member - Trade Approved
  • *****
  • Posts: 804
Re: Odds of survival - to be tested soon?
« Reply #11 on: December 06, 2018, 09:38:18 pm »

Yep.
Logged
 

Top Posters This Week